CVLT Deep Base Pattern Emerges; Uptrend Intact but Breakout Lacks Trigger

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
CVLT daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

Commvault (CVLT) is holding above its rising 30-week moving average, confirming a Stage 2 advancing trend despite a 61.5% deep base formation that carries an elevated failure rate. The 46-week base has yet to produce a breakout, with the stock trading 24.7% below its pivot of 195.41. Overall sentiment is neutral, as the market waits for a clearer contraction sequence or volume dry-up signal before committing.

As of 2026-08-14 · Close $147.09

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 2.06%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 61.5% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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