Eben@CANSLIM ResearchCommvault (CVLT) is holding above its rising 30-week moving average, confirming a Stage 2 advancing trend despite a 61.5% deep base formation that carries an elevated failure rate. The 46-week base has yet to produce a breakout, with the stock trading 24.7% below its pivot of 195.41. Overall sentiment is neutral, as the market waits for a clearer contraction sequence or volume dry-up signal before committing.
Technical Analysis
As of 2026-08-14 · Close $147.09
Stage Analysis
Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 2.06%)
Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching
- Deep Base (>33% — elevated failure rate) — depth 61.5%, length 46 weeks, pivot $195.41. Base formed from 2025-09-18 (left-side high) to 2026-08-14, with the low of $75.18 set on 2026-03-30
⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 61.5% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.
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