Eben@CANSLIM ResearchApplied Materials (AMAT) is holding a Stage 2 uptrend above a rising 30-week moving average, yet the current base is a deep, faulty pattern with a 39.6% depth and no confirmed breakout. The market is focused on the elevated failure rate of this 6-week base, while the stock sits 26.1% below its 52-week high and has failed to reclaim its 50-day MA. Overall sentiment is neutral, favoring a wait-and-see approach until a proper VCP or breakout emerges.
Technical Analysis
As of 2026-08-13 · Close $534.54
Stage Analysis
Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 10.29%)
Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching
- Deep Base (>33% — elevated failure rate) — depth 39.6%, length 6 weeks, pivot $723.0. Base formed from 2026-06-30 (left-side high) to 2026-08-13, with the low of $436.45 set on 2026-07-29
⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 39.6% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.
Subscribe to continue reading
Become a paid subscriber to get access to the rest of this post and other exclusive content.
