AMAT Deep Base Flags Elevated Risk; Uptrend Intact but Off Highs

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
AMAT daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

Applied Materials (AMAT) is holding a Stage 2 uptrend above a rising 30-week moving average, yet the current base is a deep, faulty pattern with a 39.6% depth and no confirmed breakout. The market is focused on the elevated failure rate of this 6-week base, while the stock sits 26.1% below its 52-week high and has failed to reclaim its 50-day MA. Overall sentiment is neutral, favoring a wait-and-see approach until a proper VCP or breakout emerges.

As of 2026-08-13 · Close $534.54

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 10.29%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 39.6% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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