Goldman Sachs says China’s economy is splitting in two: industrial production accelerated to 5.2% yoy in August while retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% yoy, and the gap between supply and demand is likely to widen further. In a report titled “China Matters — Path of Least Resistance,” the bank argues policymakers feel little urgency for broad-based easing because high-flying subsectors such as robots and semiconductors give them something to point to. Goldman Sachs forecasts 4.5% full-year 2026 real GDP growth, exactly the lower bound of Beijing’s 4.5-5.0% target.
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