Nomura on the Fed: Two 25bp Hikes now Base Case — September and December

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research

In a report titled “US Economic Weekly 11 September 2026,” Nomura’s North America Economics team — Aichi Amemiya, Jeremy Schwartz and Ruchir Sharma — states that it has updated its Fed forecast and now expects 25bp hikes at the September and December meetings, having previously anticipated an indefinite pause. The analysts cite elevated August inflation, Chair Warsh’s hawkish pivot at Jackson Hole and increasing upside risks to inflation, adding that media reporting suggests Warsh will take market expectations into account, with markets pricing roughly a 90% probability of a September hike at the time of writing.

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