Eben@CANSLIM ResearchDeutsche Bank’s dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report asks who is buying gold after the Fed hiked and prices broke the downtrend that had held since Jackson Hole, finding no obvious candidate in commercial, non-commercial, CTA or Chinese ETF flows. The bank’s flow analytics nonetheless show algorithmic positioning skewed to selling across precious metals for the coming week, leaving palladium most vulnerable and silver least.
Key Takeaways
- Deutsche Bank’s dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report, authored by Head of Metals Research Daniel Ghali, CFA, asks “Who’s the Mystery Buyer in Gold?” after gold rallied through its post-Jackson Hole downtrend despite a Fed hike.
- Deutsche Bank’s spot-flow data showed little inflow from commercial and non-commercial cohorts, CTA flows largely unchanged, only a marginal rise in CME gold open interest, and rising but not atypically large Chinese ETF inflows.
- Deutsche Bank’s CTA positioning tracker puts gold’s upside trigger at $4,679 (+23%) and downside trigger at $4,383 (-3%), with silver at $72.08 (+3%) and $65.98 (-6%).
- Deutsche Bank says algos will sell precious metals in nearly any scenario next week, with palladium most vulnerable and silver least vulnerable on persistent Shanghai arbitrage strength and retail spot inflows.
- Deutsche Bank’s gameplan is unchanged: lean against selling programmes if crude prices are rising, and attack gold on any sign of a pivot in crude.
What Deutsche Bank’s Gold Flow Report Says
In a report titled “dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report”, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali, CFA argues that the Fed hiked and gold rose enough to break the downtrend that had contained prices since Jackson Hole — consistent with the bank’s view that this hiking season the market wants to buy. Chair Warsh, in the report’s reading, provided little fundamental impetus for the market to attack the tape.
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