Yields Above 5% Test Every Growth Stock Leader

Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCH

The 10-Year Just Broke a 2007 Record

The market is under real pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007. That number matters for every growth stock. Higher yields shrink the value of future earnings. The Dow just posted its worst first 10 days of September since 2008. All four major indices closed lower on Tuesday. SPY fell 0.44% to 757.42. QQQ lost 0.65%. Small caps were weakest, with IWM down 0.95%. The 30-year mortgage rate now sits at 7.17%. This is a discount-rate story, and long-duration growth names feel it most.

The Fed Decision Is Priced, the Reaction Is Not

The Fed meets Wednesday. Markets assign over a 90% probability to a 25 basis point hike, from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. That would be the first hike since 2023. So the hike itself is not the risk. The risk is the message. Will policymakers signal more increases ahead? The online crowd has turned unusually bullish. The dominant view is simple: "a hike is already priced in, so stocks must rebound." Overnight futures turned green, and the chat filled with victory declarations. But that very consensus made veterans nervous. "This place is too bullish; something is wrong" became a top comment. When everyone leans one way, the tape often punishes them.

Oil Shocks Inflation While Inventories Build

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline will stay shut for weeks after an attack. Aramco canceled some September cargoes to Europe. Loading stopped at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Spot offers briefly topped $120 per barrel. WTI rose over 3% and broke above 105. USO gained 3.36%. XLE added 2.17%. Then oil gave some back. Reports pointed to larger U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. USO slipped 0.88% overnight. This tug-of-war matters. Energy-supply risk keeps inflation expectations high. That makes it harder for the Fed to ease even if growth slows. Rising oil and rising yields are a tough combination for stocks.

Crypto Stumbles as Washington Stalls

The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act. That removed a near-term regulatory catalyst for crypto. Bitcoin moved lower. COIN was hit hardest, falling 10.10% to close at 172.05. IBIT dropped 3.64%. Our featured chart, COIN, now shows the weakest technical pattern in the group. It broke down on heavy volume and sits far below its recent highs. For CAN SLIM and Minervini-style traders, this is a clear avoid. A leader that drops double digits on bad news, with no base to support it, does not belong on any watchlist. Precious metals moved the other way. GLD rose 0.62% and SLV added 1.43% overnight. Money is seeking safety, not speculation.

Earnings Are the Cushion Under This Market

Here is the bullish counterweight. S&P 500 earnings grew 28% in the second quarter. Corporate profits remain a real cushion against higher rates. That is why this is not a 2008 repeat. Semiconductors and AI infrastructure demand also stays strong. AMD and NVDA remain among the most discussed tickers. But high valuations make this group sensitive to yields and guidance. One weak outlook could trigger sharp selling. Overseas, India's payment firms rallied after a new 0.4% fee on select larger UPI merchant transactions improved their revenue outlook. Japan's Nikkei slipped as chip stocks weakened. The global picture is mixed, not broken.

Watch the Press Conference, Not the Statement

The 14:00 statement is likely a sideshow. The 14:30 press conference is where direction gets decided. One wrong sentence can extend the selloff in both stocks and bonds. Also watch whether Saudi Arabia restores its pipeline as promised. Watch whether oil stays high enough to feed inflation expectations. And watch the VIX. Multiple traders independently flagged it as "suspiciously low" before a major event. That is the evening's most consistent technical divergence. Fear sits near 45/100 — neutral to greedy, but structurally fragile. Some traders went all in. Others sold everything for cash. That split tells you the crowd has no real edge here.

Leaders Hold While the Crowd Guesses

This is a market for discipline, not predictions. The 10-year above 5% pressures every expensive growth name. COIN already broke down and should stay off your list. Energy is strong but driven by headlines, not clean bases. The safest posture is patience. Let the Fed speak. Let the reaction play out. Then watch which leaders hold their moving averages on quiet volume while the indices chop. Those are the names that survive a high-rate tape. Cash is a position. Wait for the market to prove itself before you commit.

Sources: market news brief & global social sentiment data. Updated 2026-09-16 14:00 HKT. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.