Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCHThe S&P 500 has slipped just 0.9% over the past three weeks, yet the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average has fallen by more than a third. That gap between index composure and underlying weakness is the defining feature of the current tape.
The Story So Far
The window opened on August 19 with the index at 7,707.98 and T2108 at 48.5, but the first crack appeared on August 28 when the 5-day up/down ratio slipped below 1.0 for the first time, signalling sellers had taken intraday control. T2108 broke below 40 on August 31 and has since drifted lower, touching 31.9 by September 9 even as the S&P 500 oscillated between roughly 7,630 and 7,750. The most recent session saw just 98 advancing 4% movers against 303 decliners, a stark reversal from the 556-to-190 split that opened the period.
Reading Today’s Signals
Today’s 4-count of 98 up versus 303 down, combined with a 5-day ratio of 1.17 and a 10-day ratio of 0.89, indicates that while the very short-term tape has stabilised, the medium-term picture still favours sellers. A T2108 reading of 31.9 places market breadth in the lower portion of the normal 30-70 band, but it is not yet at oversold extremes. The most recent comparable session in the loaded data was April 7, when T2108 also sat at 31.9 with the S&P 500 at 6,616.85 — no historical match was found beyond that reference point.
Divergence Check
The index and breadth are clearly diverging: the S&P 500 has lost less than 1% while T2108 has dropped 34.1% over the same window. This suggests the index’s relative stability is being carried by a narrowing group of large-cap names, leaving the broader market increasingly fragile.
Recent Trend
| Date | S&P 500 | T2108 | 5-day ratio | Up4% / Down4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | 7,637.16 | 31.9 | 1.17 | 98 / 303 |
| 09/08 | 7,673.52 | 36.4 | 1.12 | 270 / 325 |
| 09/04 | 7,718.60 | 41.1 | 1.18 | 197 / 110 |
| 09/03 | 7,747.71 | 41.1 | 0.79 | 251 / 112 |
| 09/02 | 7,666.60 | 39.1 | 0.81 | 290 / 96 |
| 09/01 | 7,631.47 | 36.4 | 0.66 | 114 / 356 |
| 08/31 | 7,686.14 | 39.2 | 1.05 | 132 / 158 |
| 08/28 | 7,711.23 | 41.9 | 0.98 | 84 / 382 |
| 08/27 | 7,728.65 | 45.2 | 1.76 | 298 / 145 |
| 08/26 | 7,676.31 | 45.1 | 1.31 | 155 / 138 |
| 08/25 | 7,676.62 | 45.8 | 1.69 | 293 / 93 |
| 08/24 | 7,652.86 | 45.9 | 1.21 | 142 / 238 |
| 08/21 | 7,674.37 | 45.7 | 1.18 | 332 / 79 |
| 08/20 | 7,641.16 | 45.0 | 1.04 | 146 / 269 |
| 08/19 | 7,707.98 | 48.5 | 1.31 | 556 / 190 |
Desk Verdict
Yellow. The Yellow verdict reflects a mixed picture: the 5-day ratio of 1.17 sits comfortably within the neutral 0.5-1.5 band, T2108 at 31.9 remains inside the 30-70 normal range, and quarterly breadth is roughly balanced at 1,209 advancers versus 1,135 decliners. None of these metrics has reached a threshold that would warrant a more aggressive bullish or bearish call.
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of September 10, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. This analysis draws on Pradeep Bonde’s Stockbee Market Monitor framework and CANSLIM Research’s daily data. It describes current market conditions and is not personalized investment advice.
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