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Morgan Stanley on Tesla: Semi Autonomy Lifts Bull Case to $840 — Equal-weight, PT $400

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Morgan Stanley has raised its bull case for Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) by $20 to $840 a share, arguing that autonomous trucking software on the Tesla Semi can generate $12,000–$18,000 per truck per month in recurring revenue. The bank keeps its Equal-weight rating and $400 price target unchanged, framing the upside as contingent on Tesla scaling high-margin autonomous offerings.

Key Takeaways

  • Morgan Stanley raised its Tesla (TSLA) bull case to $840 a share from $820, adding $20 for autonomous Semi software revenue, while reiterating an Equal-weight rating and $400 price target.
  • Morgan Stanley estimates a Tesla Semi tech licensing fee of $0.85–$1.00 per mile would generate ~$12,000–$18,000 per truck per month, versus roughly $100 a month for passenger-vehicle FSD today.
  • Morgan Stanley models 82,253 Tesla Semis in operation by 2040 in its base case, a 13.5% share of autonomous addressable truck miles, producing $17.3bn of fee revenue and ~$7.5bn of incremental EBIT.
  • Morgan Stanley’s bull case assumes 163,000 Semis in operation by 2040 at a ~$1 per mile fee ($16,000 a month), driving $34bn of annual revenue and a 20.3% uplift to its Tesla Network Services forecast.
  • Morgan Stanley estimates autonomous trucking unit economics deliver 2.3x higher utilisation, 20% lower cost per mile and 6.0x higher profit per truck per year than human-driven operation.

What Morgan Stanley’s Tesla Semi Note Says

In a report titled “$6 Diesel…Enter Tesla Semi,” Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC analysts Andrew S Percoco, Ravi Shanker and Daniela M Haigian build an economic model for an autonomous electric truck against a human-driven alternative and layer a new Tesla Semi forecast into their Network Services bull case. The note, dated 11 September 2026, follows an Insight from the firm’s Freight Transportation team reinforcing its bullish view on autonomous trucking.

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