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Morgan Stanley on LLY: Foundayo to Drive GLP-1 Share Gains — Outperform

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Morgan Stanley’s proprietary AlphaWise survey of roughly 200 US primary care physicians, conducted in August 2026, projects Eli Lilly (LLY) extending its GLP-1 share gains to ~50% in obesity and ~52% in type 2 diabetes over the next 18 months, while Novo Nordisk (NVO) slips to 42% and 44% respectively. The survey, paired with credit card panel data on the LillyDirect self-pay channel, points to oral GLP-1s now representing ~19% of the obesity GLP-1 mix, up from ~6% a year earlier, with LLY’s oral Foundayo (orforglipron) capturing ~20% of the oral-obesity market on ~44,000 weekly TRx. The findings reinforce the bank’s constructive stance on LLY and its concerns on NVO’s equity story.

Key Takeaways

  • Morgan Stanley’s August 2026 AlphaWise survey of ~200 US PCPs projects Eli Lilly (LLY) obesity GLP-1 share rising from 43% today to 50% over 18 months, and T2D share from 43% to 52%.
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) obesity share is seen flat-to-down at 45% today falling to 42%, with T2D share declining from 49% to 44% on reduced Ozempic injectable and Victoza prescribing.
  • Oral GLP-1s have more than tripled to 19% of the obesity GLP-1 mix from 6% in 2025, and are projected to reach 21% over the next 18 months.
  • Morgan Stanley models Foundayo worldwide sales of $977mn in 2026 and $6.0bn in 2027, versus consensus of ~$785mn and ~$3.5bn.
  • Physicians estimate ~38% of eligible patients will obtain GLP-1s through the Medicare Bridge programme over the next 12 months, with ~75% of respondents familiar with the programme.

What the Morgan Stanley GLP-1 Physician Survey Found

In a report titled “GLP-1’s – Takeaways from Physician Survey and Credit Card Spend Data”, Morgan Stanley analysts Terence C Flynn, Thibault Boutherin and colleagues present findings from a proprietary AlphaWise survey of approximately 200 US primary care physicians, fielded in August 2026, alongside credit card spend panel data for the LillyDirect self-pay channel. The work follows FDA approval of two oral GLP-1 obesity medicines — Novo’s oral Wegovy and LLY’s Foundayo — and the 1 July launch of the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge programme, subsequently extended through year-end 2027, which offers eligible Part D patients access to Novo’s Wegovy (pill and injectable), LLY’s Zepbound KwikPen and Foundayo at roughly $50 per month. LLY estimates around 20mn Americans are eligible.

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