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Morgan Stanley on AI and US GDP: Capex to Consumption Shift — 0.6pp Boost

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related investment has contributed about 0.6pp on average to annualised US real GDP growth since 2025, with a narrower “AI-only” measure putting the figure nearer 0.4pp. In its US Economics Weekly, the bank argues the growth mix will shift from AI infrastructure towards adoption spending, and that high-income, college-educated city households stand to gain most on net as wealth and wage effects outweigh displacement risk.

Key Takeaways

  • Morgan Stanley calculates that broad AI-related investment contributed an average of 0.6pp to annualised US real GDP growth since 2025, while incremental “AI-only” spending contributed about 0.4pp.
  • Of the roughly 0.5pp contribution from AI-only investment in 1H26, about 0.4pp came from infrastructure and the remainder from adoption, with the infrastructure contribution accelerating from -0.05pp in 2024 to 0.36pp in 1H26.
  • Morgan Stanley expects infrastructure growth to slow in 2027-28 as the build-out matures, while AI adoption spending proves more persistent and potentially accelerates.
  • The top 20% income cohort, college-educated group and 55+ cohort each hold around 80% of household equity wealth, and for the top income cohort equity wealth is roughly six times annual labour income.
  • Morgan Stanley’s base case is a modest, temporary rise in unemployment of around 0.2-0.5pp at the peak, more than offset by task creation, wage gains and wealth effects.

What Morgan Stanley’s AI GDP Report Says

In a report titled “US Economics Weekly | North America — Charting AI’s effects, from capex to consumption,” Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC chief US economist Michael T Gapen and colleagues Sam D Coffin, Diego Anzoategui, Arunima Sinha, Heather Berger and Lingdi Xu refine the bank’s estimate of AI investment’s contribution to US growth and trace how the AI cycle transmits from capital spending to household consumption.

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