Eben@CANSLIM ResearchJ.P. Morgan hosted its 2026 Rising Tech Leaders Forum in New York, meeting executives and investor-relations representatives from Calix, Ciena, HP Inc., NetApp, Sanmina and Semtech. Ciena (CIEN) reiterated plans to exit FY26 with a backlog above $10bn and flagged a new 45% gross margin baseline, while NetApp (NTAP) and HP Inc. (HPQ) both pointed to memory and NAND cost inflation as the dominant swing factor for coming quarters. The note, titled 2026 Rising Tech Leaders Forum Takeaways, was written by Manmohanpreet Singh and Marc Vitenzon of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.
Key Takeaways
- Ciena (CIEN) expects to exit FY26 with a backlog of more than $10bn and has guided to at least ~30% y/y revenue growth in FY27 on a supply-constrained basis, with management floating a possible return to medium-term guidance.
- Ciena set 45% as a new baseline for gross margins, citing mix shift toward silicon-like data centre products, long-term supply agreements and pass-through of higher component costs.
- NetApp (NTAP) reported F1Q27 product gross margin of 54% on favourable mix and lower-cost inventory, but guided to a sequential decline in F2Q27 and flat margins through 2H FY27, with full-year total company gross margin guidance down ~40bps on mix.
- HP Inc. (HPQ) said memory tracked to ~35% of bill of materials in 1H26 and is expected to approach ~40% by year-end, with F4Q26 framed as the margin trough and sequential improvement expected through FY27.
- Calix (CALX) aims to grow operating expenses at roughly half its historical rate in the medium term, holding headcount broadly flat while revenue grows, and continues to favour buybacks for capital return.
Lead Analysis: What J.P. Morgan’s Forum Takeaways Say About AI Infrastructure Demand
In a report titled 2026 Rising Tech Leaders Forum Takeaways, J.P. Morgan’s Manmohanpreet Singh and Marc Vitenzon summarise investor meetings with six companies in descending order of market capitalisation. Ciena (CIEN) dominates the note, where Executive Advisor Scott McFeely described demand as durable and held out the prospect of restoring medium-term guidance that was withdrawn nearly a year ago amid a highly dynamic demand environment. The $10bn-plus FY26 exit backlog, combined with a supply-constrained FY27 revenue guide of at least ~30% y/y growth, underpins that visibility.
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