Fed Hike Meets Weak ORCL as Leaders Split

Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCH

A Quarter-Point Hike the Market Already Ate

The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points today. That takes the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. It would be the first hike since 2023. Roughly 92% of traders expect it. In a Reuters survey, 86 of 101 economists agree. So the decision itself should not move stocks much. The real event comes at 14:30 ET. That is when Chair Kevin Warsh speaks. He has refused to give forward guidance. He prefers a "good family fight" inside the committee. That leaves the dot plot and the Q&A as the only real clues. Futures were modestly higher before the announcement. But the online crowd is not calm. Many say "25bp is priced in, so we rally." Almost none are willing to bet big on it.

Retail Sales Roar While Mortgages Crumble

August retail sales posted their strongest gain in five months. The consumer still has momentum. That makes quick easing hard to justify. Inflation remains elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5%. It touched 5.041% intraday Tuesday, the highest since July 2007. Higher long rates are already biting. The 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.22%. Purchase applications are down 19% from a year ago. Refinancing is down 65%. Oil adds a second punch. Brent crude hit a four-month high. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is still offline after an attack. Tankers have been hit near the Strait of Hormuz. One estimate puts the cost to households at $1,700 each. That keeps inflation risk alive even as crude prices ease.

The Online Crowd Is Fearful but Not Fleeing

Global social sentiment sits near 40/100 on fear. That is fearful, but not extreme. The mood is "reluctant bullishness plus intense self-doubt." Some users say they are 96% cash. One moved a whole 401k to cash. Others joke that "bears are extinct." Both sides get upvotes. Tuesday's tape was weak across the board. SPY closed at 757.42 (-0.44%). QQQ fell to 704.60 (-0.65%). DIA lost 0.62%. IWM dropped 0.95%. Premarket Wednesday was flat. SPY was 757.66 (+0.03%). QQQ was 705.38 (+0.11%). That is a sharp contrast with comment sections claiming "everything is green." The real fear lives in energy and bonds, not equities. GLD closed at 394.08 (+0.34%). TLT closed at 80.715 (-0.29%). USO jumped 3.36% to 161.89. XLE gained 2.17% to 65.94. Driller RIG surged 8.71% to 5.93.

Crypto Cracks as Chip Stories Build

The CLARITY crypto market structure bill failed in the Senate, 49-50. It fell far short of the 60 votes needed. Bitcoin dropped below $76,000. COIN plunged 10.10% to 172.05. It was one of the worst large-cap names of the day. Tighter policy pressures all liquidity-sensitive assets. Meanwhile, a chip story is building. Intel and SK Hynix are reportedly discussing joint memory production in the U.S. Options include leasing space at Intel's Ohio site or a joint venture. INTC closed at 97.12 (-0.02%). The crowd claims a 4%-5% premarket pop, but no valid premarket print showed up. AI sentiment is also splitting. Some researchers warn of AI "extinction" risk. Jensen Huang pushed back firmly. NVDA rose 0.55% to 212.17.

ORCL Shows the Weakest Chart in the Group

The featured chart is ORCL, and it looks the worst of the leaders. It dropped 3.02% to 140.315 Tuesday. That is a clear break in a market where other AI names hold up. NVDA was green the same day. This divergence matters. In CAN SLIM terms, leaders should hold tight and break out on volume. ORCL is doing the opposite. It is lagging while the group leader advances. That is a warning sign, not a buy signal. The AI trade is no longer one trade. Money is picking winners and dumping laggards. Until ORCL reclaims its recent range on strong volume, it belongs on the watch list, not the buy list.

Warsh's Words Matter More Than the Hike

The next real catalyst is forward guidance. Will Warsh signal more hikes? Or will he admit the damage from high long yields? The crowd has built scenarios where almost every outcome is bearish. A hawkish hike means decline. A dovish hike still means decline, because inflation is unsolved. No hike means a bigger decline, because Fed credibility gets questioned. That is dark humor, but it shows real caution. Downside protection is getting more important. A top sovereign wealth fund just warned of a looming U.S. pullback. Hedging is unusual and rising. For growth investors, the playbook is simple. Watch the reaction to 14:30 ET. Let the market show its hand. Keep leaders that hold. Cut laggards like ORCL if they keep breaking down. Cash is a position too.

Sources: market news brief & global social sentiment data. Updated 2026-09-16 22:00 HKT. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.