Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCHSystematic scan of 68 ETFs and indices across 7 categories. 33 in Stage 2, 12 in Stage 3-4, 13 passing Minervini. Regime: Uptrend Under Pressure. Published August 19, 2026.
How to Read This Report
Each ETF is evaluated using three frameworks. Click any category above to jump directly to its charts.
| Term | What It Means (Plain English) |
|---|---|
| Weinstein Stage (1-4) | Classifies every ETF into one of four phases based on its 150-day moving average. Stage 1 = Basing (sideways — not ready). Stage 2 = Advancing (rising — the only stage to buy). Stage 3 = Distribution (stalling — reduce). Stage 4 = Declining (falling — avoid). |
| Minervini Trend Template | An 8-point checklist by US Investing Champion Mark Minervini. Checks whether price is above key moving averages in the right order, at least 30% above the 52-week low, and within 25% of the 52-week high. Score of 8/8 = PASS = strong confirmed uptrend. |
| vs 50 MA | How far the price is from its 50-day average. Positive = above (bullish). Very large positive (>+10%) = potentially stretched too far. |
| ATR Extension | How many 'normal daily moves' (ATR) the price is above or below the 50-day average. >+2.0x = overextended (risky to chase). Near 0 = close to average (potential buy zone). |
| VDU Index | 5-day volume / 50-day average volume. Below 0.70 = volume dried up (sellers exhausted, breakout may be near). Above 1.0 = normal. |
| VCP | Volatility Contraction Pattern — price swings get smaller each time (e.g. 15% → 7% → 3%) while volume dries up. Signals sellers absorbed by buyers. One of the most reliable setups before a breakout. |
| R:R | Reward-to-risk ratio. 3.0:1 = $3 potential gain per $1 risked. Below 2.0:1 = not worth taking. Stop = 1.5x ATR; target = base depth measured move. |
Market Regime Assessment
We count how many ETFs are in each Weinstein Stage and how many pass the Minervini checklist across the full universe to determine whether the market favours aggressive buying or capital preservation.
| What We Measure | Result | What It Tells Us |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs in Stage 2 (buy zone) | 33 of 68 | 49% — narrow leadership |
| Minervini PASS (trend quality) | 13 of 68 | 19% — selective |
| Stage 3-4 (weakening/falling) | 12 of 68 | limited damage |
| Overall regime | Uptrend Under Pressure | Selective buying; tighten stops |
Feature Setup
Top setup: KRE (Regional Banks) — Pullback to 50MA, R:R 6.4:1.
Avoid (Stage 3-4): INDA, KWEB, XLC, IBIT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL, REMX, URA, NLR, TLT.
Quantitative Matrix
| ETF | Name | Category | Stage | Minervini | vs 50MA | ATR Ext | VDU | VCP | Setup | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Russell 2000 Small-Cap | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +1.5% | +1.2x | 0.65 | — | Pullback to 50MA | 4.4:1 |
| DIA | Dow Jones Industrial | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +1.8% | +1.9x | 0.64 | Yes | S2 (weak) | — |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +2.6% | +2.9x | 0.57 | — | Overextended | — |
| MDY | S&P 400 Mid-Cap | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +1.5% | +1.4x | 0.57 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| SCHD | US High Dividend | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +5.1% | +4.6x | 0.96 | — | Overextended | — |
| QQEW | Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +4.2% | +2.8x | 0.82 | — | Overextended | — |
| SPY | S&P 500 | Broad Market | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +2.4% | +2.5x | 0.68 | — | Overextended | — |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Broad Market | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +0.7% | +0.4x | 0.73 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 Tech | Broad Market | S1 Basing | 4/8 | +1.2% | +0.7x | 0.62 | — | Basing | — |
| IEV | Europe | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +2.3% | +2.6x | 1.27 | — | Overextended | — |
| EWG | Germany | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +3.9% | +3.8x | 0.38 | — | Overextended | — |
| EPOL | Poland | International | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +6.4% | +4.6x | 0.51 | — | Overextended | — |
| VCN | Canada Total Market | International | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +2.9% | +3.3x | 1.39 | — | Overextended | — |
| IPAC | Asia Pacific Developed | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +2.3% | +1.8x | 0.78 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| INDA | India | International | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +0.4% | +0.5x | 0.51 | — | Downtrend | — |
| KWEB | China Internet | International | S4 Declining | 1/8 | +0.9% | +0.4x | 1.24 | — | Downtrend | — |
| XLF | Financials | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 5/8 | +3.9% | +3.7x | 0.83 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLI | Industrials | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +1.3% | +0.9x | 0.64 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLV | Healthcare | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +5.9% | +3.5x | 0.67 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLE | Energy | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +11.5% | +5.4x | 0.76 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLB | Basic Materials | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +0.8% | +0.5x | 0.76 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLK | Technology | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +1.5% | +0.6x | 0.55 | — | Pullback to 50MA | 4.6:1 |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 2/8 | +0.4% | +0.2x | 0.64 | — | Basing | — |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +1.2% | +0.8x | 0.79 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLU | Utilities | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 3/8 | -1.7% | -1.2x | 0.86 | — | Basing | — |
| XLRE | Real Estate | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 5/8 | -0.3% | -0.2x | 1.12 | — | Basing | — |
| XLC | Communication Services | US Sectors | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +0.5% | +0.3x | 0.66 | — | Downtrend | — |
| XRT | Retail | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -1.2% | -0.7x | 0.76 | — | Basing | — |
| ITB | Homebuilders | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 2/8 | -2.1% | -0.8x | 0.64 | — | Basing | — |
| IYT | Transportation | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -0.7% | -0.4x | 0.44 | — | Basing | — |
| JETS | Airlines | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -3.2% | -1.3x | 0.66 | — | Basing | — |
| XES | Oil Equipment & Services | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +8.0% | +2.9x | 0.67 | — | Overextended | — |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +11.7% | +4.3x | 0.73 | — | Overextended | — |
| IAI | Brokers & Capital Markets | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +2.1% | +1.5x | 0.82 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| KRE | Regional Banks | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +2.4% | +1.7x | 0.70 | — | Pullback to 50MA | 6.4:1 |
| IBB | Biotech | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +8.5% | +4.6x | 0.80 | — | Overextended | — |
| XPH | Pharmaceuticals | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +8.8% | +4.1x | 1.04 | — | Overextended | — |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +4.8% | +2.6x | 0.60 | — | Overextended | — |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 7/8 | -5.3% | -1.2x | 0.64 | — | Basing | — |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 7/8 | -0.4% | -0.1x | 0.76 | — | Basing | — |
| ARTY | AI & Technology | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +2.6% | +0.7x | 0.93 | — | Pullback to 50MA | 4.9:1 |
| AIQ | AI & Big Data | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +0.3% | +0.1x | 0.48 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| BOTZ | Robotics & AI | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | +0.0% | +0.0x | 0.64 | — | Basing | — |
| IVES | Dan Ives AI Revolution | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +3.5% | +1.5x | 0.56 | — | Advancing | 5.7:1 |
| DTCR | Data Center & Digital Infra | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -2.4% | -1.0x | 0.54 | — | Basing | — |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -0.4% | -0.2x | 1.10 | — | Basing | — |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 4/8 | +1.9% | +0.7x | 0.71 | — | Basing | — |
| FFTY | IBD 50 Growth | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | -5.8% | -3.0x | 0.53 | — | Basing | — |
| IPO | IPO | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 7/8 | -1.6% | -0.6x | 0.52 | — | Basing | — |
| CIBR | Cybersecurity | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +7.1% | +2.6x | 1.13 | — | Overextended | — |
| BLOK | Blockchain | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 1/8 | -4.2% | -1.4x | 0.56 | — | Basing | — |
| WGMI | Bitcoin Miners | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | -18.8% | -2.5x | 0.73 | — | Basing | — |
| IBIT | Bitcoin Spot | Thematic & Growth | S4 Declining | 1/8 | +1.9% | +0.8x | 0.72 | — | Downtrend | — |
| ONLN | Online Retail | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 4/8 | +2.4% | +1.4x | 0.77 | — | Basing | — |
| GLD | Gold | Commodities | S4 Declining | 5/8 | +4.5% | +2.5x | 1.12 | — | Downtrend | — |
| SLV | Silver | Commodities | S4 Declining | 4/8 | +3.5% | +1.1x | 0.73 | — | Downtrend | — |
| GDX | Gold Miners | Commodities | S4 Declining | 6/8 | +12.6% | +3.1x | 0.95 | — | Downtrend | — |
| SIL | Silver Miners | Commodities | S4 Declining | 4/8 | +10.0% | +2.4x | 0.94 | — | Downtrend | — |
| COPX | Copper Miners | Commodities | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +6.4% | +2.0x | 0.92 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| REMX | Rare Earth & Strategic Metals | Commodities | S4 Declining | 3/8 | -4.5% | -1.5x | 0.71 | — | Downtrend | — |
| URA | Uranium Miners | Commodities | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +1.4% | +0.4x | 0.72 | — | Downtrend | — |
| NLR | Uranium & Nuclear | Commodities | S4 Declining | 1/8 | -0.4% | -0.1x | 0.70 | — | Downtrend | — |
| LIT | Lithium & Battery | Commodities | S1 Basing | 4/8 | -0.3% | -0.1x | 0.53 | — | Basing | — |
| USO | Crude Oil | Commodities | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +8.7% | +2.2x | 0.69 | — | Overextended | — |
| TAN | Solar | Commodities | S1 Basing | 2/8 | -9.6% | -2.9x | 0.59 | — | Basing | — |
| ICLN | Clean Energy | Commodities | S1 Basing | 2/8 | -7.2% | -2.7x | 0.85 | — | Basing | — |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Bonds & Safe Haven | S4 Declining | 1/8 | -2.7% | -3.8x | 0.99 | — | Downtrend | — |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Bonds & Safe Haven | S1 Basing | 1/8 | -0.4% | -1.1x | 0.82 | — | Basing | — |
Size & Style (6/6 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: IWM(Pullback to 50MA), DIA(S2 (weak)), RSP(Overextended), MDY(S2 (weak)), SCHD(Overextended), QQEW(Overextended).
IWM Russell 2000 Small-Cap S2
Pullback to 50MA · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +1.5% · R:R 4.4:1
DIA Dow Jones Industrial S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +1.8%
RSP S&P 500 Equal Weight S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +2.6%
MDY S&P 400 Mid-Cap S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +1.5%
SCHD US High Dividend S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +5.1%
QQEW Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +4.2%
Broad Market (2/3 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: SPY(Overextended), QQQ(S2 (weak)).
SPY S&P 500 S2
Overextended · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +2.4%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +0.7%
MAGS Magnificent 7 Tech S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +1.2%
International (5/7 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: IEV(Overextended), EWG(Overextended), EPOL(Overextended), VCN(Overextended), IPAC(S2 (weak)).
IEV Europe S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +2.3%
EWG Germany S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +3.9%
EPOL Poland S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +6.4%
VCN Canada Total Market S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +2.9%
IPAC Asia Pacific Developed S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +2.3%
INDA India S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +0.4%
KWEB China Internet S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA +0.9%
US Sectors (14/22 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: XLF(Overextended), XLI(S2 (weak)), XLV(Overextended), XLE(Overextended), XLB(S2 (weak)), XLK(Pullback to 50MA), XLP(S2 (weak)), XES(Overextended), XOP(Overextended), IAI(S2 (weak)), KRE(Pullback to 50MA), IBB(Overextended), XPH(Overextended), ITA(Overextended).
XLF Financials S2
Overextended · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA +3.9%
XLI Industrials S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +1.3%
XLV Healthcare S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +5.9%
XLE Energy S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +11.5%
XLB Basic Materials S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +0.8%
XLK Technology S2
Pullback to 50MA · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +1.5% · R:R 4.6:1
XLY Consumer Discretionary S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +0.4%
XLP Consumer Staples S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +1.2%
XLU Utilities S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -1.7%
XLRE Real Estate S1
Basing · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA -0.3%
XLC Communication Services S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +0.5%
XRT Retail S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -1.2%
ITB Homebuilders S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -2.1%
IYT Transportation S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -0.7%
JETS Airlines S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -3.2%
XES Oil Equipment & Services S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +8.0%
XOP Oil & Gas E&P S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +11.7%
IAI Brokers & Capital Markets S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +2.1%
KRE Regional Banks S2
Pullback to 50MA · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +2.4% · R:R 6.4:1
IBB Biotech S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +8.5%
XPH Pharmaceuticals S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +8.8%
ITA Aerospace & Defense S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +4.8%
Thematic & Growth (4/16 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: ARTY(Pullback to 50MA), AIQ(S2 (weak)), IVES(Advancing), CIBR(Overextended).
SOXX Semiconductors S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA -5.3%
QTUM Quantum Computing S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA -0.4%
ARTY AI & Technology S2
Pullback to 50MA · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +2.6% · R:R 4.9:1
AIQ AI & Big Data S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +0.3%
BOTZ Robotics & AI S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA +0.0%
IVES Dan Ives AI Revolution S2
Advancing · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +3.5% · R:R 5.7:1
DTCR Data Center & Digital Infra S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -2.4%
GRID Smart Grid Infrastructure S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -0.4%
ARKK ARK Innovation S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +1.9%
FFTY IBD 50 Growth S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -5.8%
IPO IPO S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA -1.6%
CIBR Cybersecurity S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +7.1%
BLOK Blockchain S1
Basing · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -4.2%
WGMI Bitcoin Miners S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -18.8%
IBIT Bitcoin Spot S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA +1.9%
ONLN Online Retail S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +2.4%
Commodities (2/12 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: COPX(S2 (weak)), USO(Overextended).
GLD Gold S4
Downtrend · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA +4.5%
SLV Silver S4
Downtrend · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +3.5%
GDX Gold Miners S4
Downtrend · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +12.6%
SIL Silver Miners S4
Downtrend · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +10.0%
COPX Copper Miners S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +6.4%
REMX Rare Earth & Strategic Metals S4
Downtrend · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -4.5%
URA Uranium Miners S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +1.4%
NLR Uranium & Nuclear S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -0.4%
LIT Lithium & Battery S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA -0.3%
USO Crude Oil S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +8.7%
TAN Solar S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -9.6%
ICLN Clean Energy S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -7.2%
Bonds & Safe Haven (0/2 Stage 2)
No ETFs in Stage 2 in this category.
TLT 20+ Year Treasury S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -2.7%
IEF 7-10 Year Treasury S1
Basing · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -0.4%
Takeaways
1. Regime: Uptrend Under Pressure. 33/68 in Stage 2, 13 Minervini PASS. Selective buying; tighten stops.
2. Best setup: KRE (Regional Banks) — Pullback to 50MA, R:R 6.4:1.
3. Avoid 12 ETFs in Stage 3-4.
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of August 19, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. Weinstein Stage: 150-day SMA slope over 26 bars. Minervini: 8 criteria per TLAS Ch.4. VCP: sequential contraction + volume dry-up. Stop = 1.5x ATR; target = measured move.
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