Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCHSystematic scan of 68 ETFs and indices across 7 categories. 33 in Stage 2, 11 in Stage 3-4, 13 passing Minervini. Regime: Uptrend Under Pressure. Published August 22, 2026.
How to Read This Report
Each ETF is evaluated using three frameworks. Click any category above to jump directly to its charts.
| Term | What It Means (Plain English) |
|---|---|
| Weinstein Stage (1-4) | Classifies every ETF into one of four phases based on its 150-day moving average. Stage 1 = Basing (sideways — not ready). Stage 2 = Advancing (rising — the only stage to buy). Stage 3 = Distribution (stalling — reduce). Stage 4 = Declining (falling — avoid). |
| Minervini Trend Template | An 8-point checklist by US Investing Champion Mark Minervini. Checks whether price is above key moving averages in the right order, at least 30% above the 52-week low, and within 25% of the 52-week high. Score of 8/8 = PASS = strong confirmed uptrend. |
| vs 50 MA | How far the price is from its 50-day average. Positive = above (bullish). Very large positive (>+10%) = potentially stretched too far. |
| ATR Extension | How many 'normal daily moves' (ATR) the price is above or below the 50-day average. >+2.0x = overextended (risky to chase). Near 0 = close to average (potential buy zone). |
| VDU Index | 5-day volume / 50-day average volume. Below 0.70 = volume dried up (sellers exhausted, breakout may be near). Above 1.0 = normal. |
| VCP | Volatility Contraction Pattern — price swings get smaller each time (e.g. 15% → 7% → 3%) while volume dries up. Signals sellers absorbed by buyers. One of the most reliable setups before a breakout. |
| R:R | Reward-to-risk ratio. 3.0:1 = $3 potential gain per $1 risked. Below 2.0:1 = not worth taking. Stop = 1.5x ATR; target = base depth measured move. |
Market Regime Assessment
We count how many ETFs are in each Weinstein Stage and how many pass the Minervini checklist across the full universe to determine whether the market favours aggressive buying or capital preservation.
| What We Measure | Result | What It Tells Us |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs in Stage 2 (buy zone) | 33 of 68 | 49% — narrow leadership |
| Minervini PASS (trend quality) | 13 of 68 | 19% — selective |
| Stage 3-4 (weakening/falling) | 11 of 68 | limited damage |
| Overall regime | Uptrend Under Pressure | Selective buying; tighten stops |
Feature Setup
Top setup: IVES (Dan Ives AI Revolution) — Advancing, R:R 6.1:1.
Avoid (Stage 3-4): KWEB, XLC, XRT, ITB, BOTZ, SLV, REMX, URA, NLR, TAN, TLT.
Quantitative Matrix
| ETF | Name | Category | Stage | Minervini | vs 50MA | ATR Ext | VDU | VCP | Setup | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Russell 2000 Small-Cap | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +1.1% | +0.9x | 0.81 | — | Pullback to 50MA | 4.4:1 |
| DIA | Dow Jones Industrial | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +1.4% | +1.4x | 0.75 | Yes | S2 (weak) | — |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +3.1% | +3.2x | 0.67 | — | Overextended | — |
| MDY | S&P 400 Mid-Cap | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +0.6% | +0.6x | 0.79 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| SCHD | US High Dividend | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +6.3% | +5.3x | 1.04 | — | Overextended | — |
| QQEW | Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight | Size & Style | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +4.2% | +3.2x | 0.84 | — | Overextended | — |
| SPY | S&P 500 | Broad Market | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +1.9% | +2.0x | 0.80 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Broad Market | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +0.0% | +0.0x | 0.86 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 Tech | Broad Market | S1 Basing | 4/8 | +1.9% | +1.1x | 0.56 | — | Basing | — |
| IEV | Europe | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +3.2% | +3.8x | 1.31 | — | Overextended | — |
| EWG | Germany | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +4.7% | +4.8x | 0.45 | — | Overextended | — |
| EPOL | Poland | International | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +7.4% | +5.2x | 0.56 | — | Overextended | — |
| VCN | Canada Total Market | International | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +3.4% | +3.8x | 1.32 | — | Overextended | — |
| IPAC | Asia Pacific Developed | International | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +2.4% | +2.0x | 0.90 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| INDA | India | International | S1 Basing | 2/8 | +0.7% | +0.9x | 0.54 | — | Basing | — |
| KWEB | China Internet | International | S4 Declining | 1/8 | +0.3% | +0.2x | 0.91 | — | Downtrend | — |
| XLF | Financials | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 5/8 | +2.7% | +2.4x | 0.99 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLI | Industrials | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -0.8% | -0.6x | 0.89 | — | Basing | — |
| XLV | Healthcare | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +8.0% | +4.2x | 1.02 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLE | Energy | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +10.8% | +5.2x | 0.84 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLB | Basic Materials | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +3.8% | +2.3x | 0.88 | — | Overextended | — |
| XLK | Technology | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +0.2% | +0.1x | 0.68 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 3/8 | +1.6% | +1.0x | 0.81 | — | Basing | — |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +1.5% | +1.0x | 0.98 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLU | Utilities | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 2/8 | -4.5% | -2.9x | 0.92 | — | Basing | — |
| XLRE | Real Estate | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +0.6% | +0.5x | 1.05 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| XLC | Communication Services | US Sectors | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +1.3% | +0.8x | 0.61 | — | Downtrend | — |
| XRT | Retail | US Sectors | S3 Distribution | 6/8 | -0.8% | -0.4x | 0.98 | — | Distribution | — |
| ITB | Homebuilders | US Sectors | S4 Declining | 2/8 | -1.1% | -0.4x | 0.89 | — | Downtrend | — |
| IYT | Transportation | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +0.2% | +0.1x | 0.56 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| JETS | Airlines | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -5.9% | -2.5x | 0.88 | — | Basing | — |
| XES | Oil Equipment & Services | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +5.7% | +2.1x | 0.62 | — | Overextended | — |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +13.3% | +5.2x | 0.95 | — | Overextended | — |
| IAI | Brokers & Capital Markets | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +4.0% | +2.6x | 1.43 | — | Overextended | — |
| KRE | Regional Banks | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 7/8 | -0.5% | -0.4x | 1.15 | — | Basing | — |
| IBB | Biotech | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +12.2% | +5.2x | 1.28 | — | Overextended | — |
| XPH | Pharmaceuticals | US Sectors | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +7.8% | +3.6x | 1.06 | — | Overextended | — |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | US Sectors | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -1.7% | -0.8x | 0.82 | — | Basing | — |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -6.9% | -1.7x | 0.75 | — | Basing | — |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -1.4% | -0.5x | 0.62 | — | Basing | — |
| ARTY | AI & Technology | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +3.2% | +1.0x | 0.93 | — | Advancing | 5.3:1 |
| AIQ | AI & Big Data | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +1.7% | +0.8x | 0.50 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| BOTZ | Robotics & AI | Thematic & Growth | S3 Distribution | 2/8 | -1.1% | -0.6x | 0.83 | — | Distribution | — |
| IVES | Dan Ives AI Revolution | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +3.4% | +1.5x | 0.37 | — | Advancing | 6.1:1 |
| DTCR | Data Center & Digital Infra | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -2.4% | -1.1x | 0.58 | — | Basing | — |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 5/8 | -1.9% | -1.0x | 1.08 | — | Basing | — |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 5/8 | +10.2% | +3.3x | 1.13 | — | Basing | — |
| FFTY | IBD 50 Growth | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | -6.0% | -3.3x | 0.43 | — | Basing | — |
| IPO | IPO | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 6/8 | -1.9% | -0.8x | 0.37 | — | Basing | — |
| CIBR | Cybersecurity | Thematic & Growth | S2 Advancing | 8/8 | +3.5% | +1.3x | 1.21 | — | Advancing | 5.0:1 |
| BLOK | Blockchain | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 4/8 | +1.9% | +0.6x | 0.97 | — | Basing | — |
| WGMI | Bitcoin Miners | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | -17.5% | -2.4x | 0.95 | — | Basing | — |
| IBIT | Bitcoin Spot | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | +20.4% | +6.2x | 1.95 | — | Basing | — |
| ONLN | Online Retail | Thematic & Growth | S1 Basing | 3/8 | +2.7% | +1.6x | 0.42 | — | Basing | — |
| GLD | Gold | Commodities | S1 Basing | 6/8 | +10.5% | +5.3x | 1.59 | — | Basing | — |
| SLV | Silver | Commodities | S4 Declining | 4/8 | +12.7% | +3.8x | 1.06 | — | Downtrend | — |
| GDX | Gold Miners | Commodities | S1 Basing | 7/8 | +27.9% | +6.3x | 1.29 | — | Basing | — |
| SIL | Silver Miners | Commodities | S1 Basing | 7/8 | +23.2% | +5.0x | 1.50 | — | Basing | — |
| COPX | Copper Miners | Commodities | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +16.6% | +4.8x | 1.12 | — | Overextended | — |
| REMX | Rare Earth & Strategic Metals | Commodities | S4 Declining | 4/8 | +1.4% | +0.5x | 0.95 | — | Downtrend | — |
| URA | Uranium Miners | Commodities | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +7.0% | +1.9x | 0.94 | — | Downtrend | — |
| NLR | Uranium & Nuclear | Commodities | S4 Declining | 2/8 | +4.5% | +1.4x | 0.77 | — | Downtrend | — |
| LIT | Lithium & Battery | Commodities | S2 Advancing | 6/8 | +3.3% | +1.6x | 0.77 | — | S2 (weak) | — |
| USO | Crude Oil | Commodities | S2 Advancing | 7/8 | +12.0% | +3.3x | 0.70 | — | Overextended | — |
| TAN | Solar | Commodities | S3 Distribution | 2/8 | -9.4% | -3.0x | 1.28 | — | Distribution | — |
| ICLN | Clean Energy | Commodities | S1 Basing | 2/8 | -7.2% | -2.9x | 0.99 | — | Basing | — |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Bonds & Safe Haven | S4 Declining | 1/8 | -2.1% | -2.7x | 1.20 | — | Downtrend | — |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Bonds & Safe Haven | S1 Basing | 1/8 | -0.5% | -1.4x | 0.83 | — | Basing | — |
Size & Style (6/6 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: IWM(Pullback to 50MA), DIA(S2 (weak)), RSP(Overextended), MDY(S2 (weak)), SCHD(Overextended), QQEW(Overextended).
IWM Russell 2000 Small-Cap S2
Pullback to 50MA · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +1.1% · R:R 4.4:1
DIA Dow Jones Industrial S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +1.4%
RSP S&P 500 Equal Weight S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +3.1%
MDY S&P 400 Mid-Cap S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +0.6%
SCHD US High Dividend S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +6.3%
QQEW Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +4.2%
Broad Market (2/3 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: SPY(S2 (weak)), QQQ(S2 (weak)).
SPY S&P 500 S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +1.9%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +0.0%
MAGS Magnificent 7 Tech S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +1.9%
International (5/7 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: IEV(Overextended), EWG(Overextended), EPOL(Overextended), VCN(Overextended), IPAC(S2 (weak)).
IEV Europe S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +3.2%
EWG Germany S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +4.7%
EPOL Poland S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +7.4%
VCN Canada Total Market S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +3.4%
IPAC Asia Pacific Developed S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +2.4%
INDA India S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +0.7%
KWEB China Internet S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA +0.3%
US Sectors (13/22 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: XLF(Overextended), XLV(Overextended), XLE(Overextended), XLB(Overextended), XLK(S2 (weak)), XLP(S2 (weak)), XLRE(S2 (weak)), IYT(S2 (weak)), XES(Overextended), XOP(Overextended), IAI(Overextended), IBB(Overextended), XPH(Overextended).
XLF Financials S2
Overextended · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA +2.7%
XLI Industrials S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -0.8%
XLV Healthcare S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +8.0%
XLE Energy S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +10.8%
XLB Basic Materials S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +3.8%
XLK Technology S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +0.2%
XLY Consumer Discretionary S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA +1.6%
XLP Consumer Staples S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +1.5%
XLU Utilities S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -4.5%
XLRE Real Estate S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +0.6%
XLC Communication Services S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +1.3%
XRT Retail S3
Distribution · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -0.8%
ITB Homebuilders S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -1.1%
IYT Transportation S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +0.2%
JETS Airlines S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -5.9%
XES Oil Equipment & Services S2
Overextended · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +5.7%
XOP Oil & Gas E&P S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +13.3%
IAI Brokers & Capital Markets S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +4.0%
KRE Regional Banks S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA -0.5%
IBB Biotech S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +12.2%
XPH Pharmaceuticals S2
Overextended · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +7.8%
ITA Aerospace & Defense S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -1.7%
Thematic & Growth (4/16 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: ARTY(Advancing), AIQ(S2 (weak)), IVES(Advancing), CIBR(Advancing).
SOXX Semiconductors S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -6.9%
QTUM Quantum Computing S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -1.4%
ARTY AI & Technology S2
Advancing · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +3.2% · R:R 5.3:1
AIQ AI & Big Data S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +1.7%
BOTZ Robotics & AI S3
Distribution · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -1.1%
IVES Dan Ives AI Revolution S2
Advancing · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +3.4% · R:R 6.1:1
DTCR Data Center & Digital Infra S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -2.4%
GRID Smart Grid Infrastructure S1
Basing · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA -1.9%
ARKK ARK Innovation S1
Basing · Mini 5/8 · vs50MA +10.2%
FFTY IBD 50 Growth S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -6.0%
IPO IPO S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA -1.9%
CIBR Cybersecurity S2
Advancing · Mini 8/8 · vs50MA +3.5% · R:R 5.0:1
BLOK Blockchain S1
Basing · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +1.9%
WGMI Bitcoin Miners S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA -17.5%
IBIT Bitcoin Spot S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA +20.4%
ONLN Online Retail S1
Basing · Mini 3/8 · vs50MA +2.7%
Commodities (3/12 Stage 2)
Stage 2 leaders: COPX(Overextended), LIT(S2 (weak)), USO(Overextended).
GLD Gold S1
Basing · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +10.5%
SLV Silver S4
Downtrend · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +12.7%
GDX Gold Miners S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +27.9%
SIL Silver Miners S1
Basing · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +23.2%
COPX Copper Miners S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +16.6%
REMX Rare Earth & Strategic Metals S4
Downtrend · Mini 4/8 · vs50MA +1.4%
URA Uranium Miners S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +7.0%
NLR Uranium & Nuclear S4
Downtrend · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA +4.5%
LIT Lithium & Battery S2
S2 (weak) · Mini 6/8 · vs50MA +3.3%
USO Crude Oil S2
Overextended · Mini 7/8 · vs50MA +12.0%
TAN Solar S3
Distribution · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -9.4%
ICLN Clean Energy S1
Basing · Mini 2/8 · vs50MA -7.2%
Bonds & Safe Haven (0/2 Stage 2)
No ETFs in Stage 2 in this category.
TLT 20+ Year Treasury S4
Downtrend · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -2.1%
IEF 7-10 Year Treasury S1
Basing · Mini 1/8 · vs50MA -0.5%
Takeaways
1. Regime: Uptrend Under Pressure. 33/68 in Stage 2, 13 Minervini PASS. Selective buying; tighten stops.
2. Best setup: IVES (Dan Ives AI Revolution) — Advancing, R:R 6.1:1.
3. Avoid 11 ETFs in Stage 3-4.
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of August 22, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. Weinstein Stage: 150-day SMA slope over 26 bars. Minervini: 8 criteria per TLAS Ch.4. VCP: sequential contraction + volume dry-up. Stop = 1.5x ATR; target = measured move.
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