CVLT Deep Base Pattern Flags Elevated Risk despite Stage 2 Uptrend

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
CVLT daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

Commvault (CVLT) is holding above a rising 30-week moving average, confirming a Stage 2 advancing trend, yet the current base formation is a deep 61.5% decline over 45 weeks, which historically carries an elevated failure rate. The trend template passes 5 of 8 checks, with price above key moving averages and 101% above its 52-week low, but the lack of a VCP contraction sequence and a faulty base structure keep the setup neutral. Overall sentiment is wait-and-see, as the stock trades 22.7% below its pivot of 195.41 with no confirmed breakout.

As of 2026-08-13 · Close $151.1

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 2.18%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 61.5% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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