Eben@CANSLIM ResearchJ.P. Morgan has raised its Korea growth profile sharply, forecasting real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, up from 1.1% in 2025, driven by an AI-led tech cycle. The bank now targets a Bank of Korea terminal policy rate of 3.75% by 2Q27, marking a shift from an easing mindset to a tightening phase. It also sees the current account surplus potentially reaching ~19% of GDP in 2026, a historically unusual level.
Key Takeaways
- J.P. Morgan forecasts Korea’s real GDP growth at 3.8% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, versus 1.1% in 2025, with the AI-related tech cycle the key driver.
- The bank expects real exports to grow around 11% in 2026, with tech exports supported by both price and volume gains.
- J.P. Morgan targets a BoK terminal policy rate of 3.75% by 2Q27 and flags residual upside risk, having revised potential growth up to ~2.2-2.3%.
- Korea’s current account surplus could reach ~19% of GDP in 2026, though sustained outward investment flows mute the currency impact.
- Fiscal revenues are seen rising from 22.6% of GDP in 2025 to 23.0% in 2026 and 25.6% in 2027, driven by a corporate income tax windfall from memory producers.
What J.P. Morgan’s Korea Economic Outlook Says
In a report titled “Korea Economic Outlook — Macroeconomic implications of the tech boom,” J.P. Morgan chief Korea economist Seok Gil Park argues that Korea’s growth cycle has moved decisively into a tech-led upturn, with annual real GDP growth likely rising from 1.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. The AI-related tech cycle is lifting exports, corporate profitability and, on a short lag, facility investment.
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