Eben@CANSLIM ResearchJ.P. Morgan has reiterated a positive stance on the larger copper miners, keeping Overweight ratings on BHP, Rio Tinto, Capstone Copper, Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta and Vale, even as tariff uncertainty continues to dominate copper pricing. Global visible copper inventories have fallen to 1.04Mt from 1.37Mt in March, with the decline driven almost entirely by China, while US-located LME and COMEX stocks have climbed to roughly 810kt, or about 80% of the global total. The bank’s base case remains that Washington ultimately imposes a phased, escalating tariff on refined copper cathode imports — but the timing, not the direction, is now the market’s central question.
Key Takeaways
- J.P. Morgan holds an Overweight rating on BHP (BHP AU) with a target of A$67.00, implying 10% upside, and on Rio Tinto (RIO AU) with a target of A$205.00, implying 22% upside.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US) is J.P. Morgan’s key Overweight in the US, with a target of $77.00 versus a $70.90 price, implying 9% upside.
- Global visible copper inventories have dropped to 1.04Mt from 1.37Mt in March, as SHFE and China bonded warehouse stocks fell roughly 410kt to about 90kt.
- US-located LME and COMEX copper inventory has risen to about 810kt, roughly 80% of the global total, on tariff front-running — but the COMEX-to-LME premium has now disappeared.
- J.P. Morgan placed Lundin Mining (LUN CN) on Negative Catalyst Watch into its 4 November third-quarter results, flagging potential for the ~US$7bn Vicuña phase 1 capex estimate to be revised higher.
What the J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Says
In a report titled “Copper Dashboard — Global exchange inventories fall as US located stocks keep rising, tariff noise remains the key price driver; remain positive on larger copper miners,” J.P. Morgan’s metals and mining team, led by head of Australia Metals & Mining Dominic O’Kane alongside Patrick Jones, Bill Peterson, Jonathon Sharp, Devwrat Vegad, Branko Skocic and Zane Guo, argues that the copper market’s near-term direction rests on US tariff policy rather than fundamentals.
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