Eben@CANSLIM ResearchGoldman Sachs has maintained its $5,400/toz end-2027 gold price forecast even after the Federal Reserve raised rates and its economists pencilled in a further hike in October. The bank has, however, cut its year-end 2026 fair value estimate to $4,650/toz from $4,900/toz, arguing that tighter policy will slow the rally’s near-term path rather than lower its terminal destination.
Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs keeps its $5,400/toz end-2027 gold forecast unchanged despite the Fed hike and an expected additional October increase.
- The bank trims its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650/toz, down from $4,900/toz but still above spot of roughly $4,350/toz.
- Goldman Sachs raises its central bank demand assumption to 60 tonnes/month on average through 2026-27, versus 50 tonnes in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027 previously.
- Central bank purchases are running at ~91 tonnes/month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, against a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes/month.
- In a hawkish Fed scenario, Goldman Sachs sees gold falling toward a near-term floor of ~$4,070/toz before recovering to about $4,200/toz by end-2026.
What the Goldman Sachs Gold Report Says
In a report titled “Fed Hikes to Slow, Rather than Derail, the Gold Rally”, published on 18 September 2026, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research’s precious metals team argues that the Fed’s latest hike and the prospect of another in October will weigh on gold through ETF demand in the near term, but will not alter the metal’s eventual destination. The bank’s economists expect the Fed to deliver three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%.
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