Eben@CANSLIM ResearchBofA Global Research’s Bull & Bear Indicator held at 9.5 this week, keeping its “sell signal” in place since it was triggered on 26 May 2026. The bank’s latest The Flow Show reports $79.3bn of weekly inflows to equities and a $75.9bn outflow from cash, the largest in nine weeks, while warning that positioning remains too bullish as profits moderate into 2027. Commodities are the standout year-to-date performer at +45%, with BofA flagging record diesel prices and maxed-out refinery capacity as the key inflation risk.
Key Takeaways
- BofA Global Research’s Bull & Bear Indicator stayed at 9.5, a “sell” reading, as strong global equity inflows were offset by high-yield bond outflows and wider AT1 credit spreads.
- Global equity funds took in $79.3bn in the week to 16 September 2026, including a $63.8bn inflow to US equities — the biggest in three months — while cash funds shed $75.9bn.
- BofA’s Global Breadth Rule shows just 2% of global equity market indices trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, down from 66% a week earlier.
- Commodities have returned +45% year-to-date and have outperformed US equities over five years, with the Quantix Commodity Index Total Return up 296% over a decade versus 119% for the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return.
- BofA warns the biggest market risk is that record $6.40 diesel prices rhyme with CPI above 5%, at a time when US refineries are already running at 97% operable capacity.
Lead Analysis: What BofA’s “Peaks and Shovels” Report Says
In a report titled “The Flow Show — Peaks and shovels,” BofA Global Research strategists Jared Woodard and Michael Hartnett argue that the three Ps — positioning, policy and profits — are all peaking simultaneously, leaving little room for further upside without a policy or trade catalyst. The note, published 17 September 2026, carries the subtitle “Peaks and shovels,” a reference to the rotation away from AI enablers and towards the picks-and-shovels beneficiaries of the buildout.
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