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Bernstein on Refiners: Russia Drone Strikes to Lift Crack Spreads — XOM Outperform

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Bernstein’s latest Russia refinery tracker finds roughly 2-3 mln bopd of Russian refining capacity currently on fire and about 4 mln bopd hit over the past month — some 2-3% and 4% of global refining respectively. The lost capacity has forced Moscow to extend refined product export bans to end-January 2027, tightening the global product market and lifting crack spreads. Bernstein expects that spread to persist into 2027 absent a Russia-Ukraine truce, benefiting refiners and integrated oils, naming ExxonMobil (XOM, Outperform) and Chevron (CVX, Market-Perform).

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