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Bernstein on Swiss Watches: Global Exports Turn Positive — Richemont Top Pick

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Swiss watch exports rose 9.1% year-on-year in August 2026, but the headline figure flatters the underlying trend — adjusted for one extra working day, growth was closer to 4.1%. More significantly, Bernstein notes that on a 12-month moving average (12MA) basis, global export value grew 0.2%, turning positive for the first time in two years, while Greater China exports also turned positive on a 12MA basis for the first time since April 2024. Bernstein keeps Richemont (CFR.SW) as its best idea with an Outperform rating and a CHF 240 price target.

Key Takeaways

  • Swiss watch exports grew +9.1% YoY in August 2026, or roughly +4.1% adjusting for one additional working day, according to Bernstein’s Global Luxury Goods note.
  • On a 12-month moving average basis, global Swiss watch export value rose +0.2% YoY — the first positive reading in two years.
  • Exports to Mainland China grew +15.8% and Hong Kong +1.4% in August, lifting Greater China 12MA growth to +0.8%, the first positive since April 2024.
  • US export value fell -19.4% YoY in August, though the 12MA decline has stabilised at around -17% since June 2026.
  • Bernstein rates Richemont (CFR.SW) Outperform with a CHF 240 target, and rates Swatch (UHR.SW) and Kering (KER.FP) Market-Perform.

What Bernstein’s Swiss Watch Export Data Shows

In a report titled “Global Luxury Goods: August Swiss watch exports – Global and Greater China exports turn positive on a 12-month basis,” Bernstein analysts Luca Solca, Maria Meita, Eric Chen and Yi-Peng Khoo argue that Swiss watch demand remains on track for a gradual recovery, with the US providing strong support and East Asia’s recovery uneven but broadly on the right trajectory. The note, first published 17 September 2026, draws on FHS export data and Bernstein analysis.

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