Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCHThe S&P 500 has climbed 1.0% over the past 21 sessions, yet the percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving average has dropped sharply. That gap between index performance and underlying participation defines the current market.
The Story So Far
The picture began changing on 2026-08-31, when T2108 first fell below both 50 and 40, and the 5-day ratio slipped below 1.0 on 2026-09-01 as sellers took control. T2108 deteriorated from 39.2 on 08/31 to 22.8 by 09/21, with the S&P 500 touching 7,551.81 on 09/16 before rallying to 7,765.10. The most recent session saw 144 stocks up 4% or more against 78 down, but the 10-day ratio of 0.84 remains below 1.0.
Reading Today’s Signals
Today’s 4% movers at 144 up versus 78 down, a 5-day ratio of 1.12, and T2108 at 22.8 indicate that short-term trading has turned neutral while the broader participation measure is washed out. The most recent earlier session with a comparable T2108 in the loaded data was 2026-04-01, when T2108 stood at 25.2 and the S&P 500 was at 6,575.32. No other historical comparison was found in the loaded data.
Divergence Check
The index and breadth are diverging: the S&P 500 is up 1.0% over the window while T2108 has fallen 16.4 points. That implies the rally is being carried by a narrowing group of stocks rather than broad participation.
Recent Trend
| Date | S&P 500 | T2108 | 5-day ratio | Up4% / Down4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | 7,765.10 | 22.8 | 1.12 | 144 / 78 |
| 09/18 | 7,650.50 | 23.9 | 0.97 | 253 / 235 |
| 09/17 | 7,637.76 | 26.4 | 1.01 | 382 / 88 |
| 09/16 | 7,551.81 | 24.5 | 0.64 | 166 / 250 |
| 09/15 | 7,585.73 | 27.5 | 0.57 | 134 / 316 |
| 09/14 | 7,619.98 | 29.6 | 0.66 | 281 / 365 |
| 09/11 | 7,656.98 | 30.9 | 0.73 | 200 / 130 |
| 09/10 | 7,591.70 | 28.8 | 0.79 | 99 / 304 |
| 09/09 | 7,636.36 | 32.0 | 1.16 | 98 / 310 |
| 09/08 | 7,673.52 | 36.4 | 1.12 | 270 / 325 |
| 09/04 | 7,718.60 | 41.1 | 1.18 | 197 / 110 |
| 09/03 | 7,747.71 | 41.1 | 0.79 | 251 / 112 |
| 09/02 | 7,666.60 | 39.1 | 0.81 | 290 / 96 |
| 09/01 | 7,631.47 | 36.4 | 0.66 | 114 / 356 |
| 08/31 | 7,686.14 | 39.2 | 1.05 | 132 / 158 |
Desk Verdict
Red. The verdict is Red because the 5-day ratio of 1.12 sits in the neutral 0.5-1.5 band, T2108 at 22.8 is below 30 and washed out, and quarterly breadth is roughly balanced at 1066 stocks up 25% or more versus 1190 down 25% or more.
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of September 22, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. This analysis draws on Pradeep Bonde’s Stockbee Market Monitor framework and CANSLIM Research’s daily data. It describes current market conditions and is not personalized investment advice.
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