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Deutsche Bank on Semis: Mature-Chip Tightness Persists — No Broad Rating

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Deutsche Bank’s September 2026 semiconductor channel check finds mature-chip pricing still trending upwards, with shortage conditions persisting in lagging-edge analog, MCU and passive categories, though overall tightness is not as pervasive as in 2021/22. Leading-edge logic and memory remain acutely short, with N2/N3 lead times estimated at 78–156 weeks and foundry supply seen as insufficient to cover demand at least until the end of 2028. The report introduces a new AI trade monitor and stays constructive on AI-linked semis, arguing hyperscaler capex is unlikely to flatline in 2028.

Key Takeaways

  • Deutsche Bank’s weekly scrape of more than 1,500 distributor-channel SKUs shows mature chip pricing trending upwards in September 2026, with significant increases in parts of analog at Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI).
  • Many mature foundries are raising pricing into 2027, and Infineon Technologies (IFX.DE) supply constraints are expected to persist into 2027, per Fusion.
  • STMicroelectronics (STM) core MCU and sensor categories face extended lead times of 40–50 weeks, while passives such as MLCCs have entered shortage conditions.
  • Leading-edge tightness remains acute: N2/N3 lead times of 78–156 weeks, DDR5 DRIMM fulfilment rates for non-hyperscaler customers below 30%, and ABF substrate lead times stretched beyond a year.
  • Deutsche Bank remains constructive on AI-related semiconductor names, viewing hyperscaler capex flatlining in 2028 as the principal risk to the sector.

What Deutsche Bank’s September 2026 Channel Checks Found

In a report titled “Tracking the tightness: Sep 2026”, Deutsche Bank’s semiconductor team — led by analyst Robert Sanders alongside Punyadip Cheema, Melissa Weathers, Johannes Schaller, Debbie Jones and George Brown — reports that its weekly pricing scrape, run with dbDataInsights, continues to show a positive trend. The exercise covers mainly analog, discrete and MCU components sold into the distributor channel, spanning more than 1,500 SKUs, with data taken to 9 September 2026.

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