Eben@CANSLIM ResearchDeutsche Bank’s latest metals flow note argues that gold’s recent pullback has reignited spot buying below $4,400/oz, with commercial participants leading and non-commercial and retail buyers following to a lesser degree. The bank’s CTA positioning model shows algos still hold a margin of safety, with the next large-scale selling programme only catalysed below $4,220/oz, equivalent to -14% of algos’ maximum size. Deutsche Bank frames the key risk as Chair Warsh falling short of greenlighting the 3.9 hikes already priced over the next twelve months, a scenario it sees as supportive rather than damaging for gold.
Key Takeaways
- Deutsche Bank’s dbMetals flow data show overall spot gold flows turned positive below the $4,400/oz mark, led by commercial participants, with non-commercial and retail inflows following at a smaller scale.
- Deutsche Bank estimates the next large-scale CTA selling programme in gold would be triggered below $4,220/oz, representing -14% of algos’ maximum position size.
- Rates markets are pricing a Fed hike with near-certainty this week and 3.9 hikes over the next twelve months, with the US 10-year yield above 5% and near-dated crude above $100/bbl.
- Deutsche Bank’s CTA tracker shows palladium spot inflows at +26% of historical maximum last session, offsetting CTA selling of -8% of maximum position size, though another selling programme of -9% of algos’ max size is expected at current levels.
- For LME copper, Deutsche Bank says prices must break below $13,850/t this session to prevent CTAs reaccumulating recently liquidated length, with the model showing CTA positioning at 94% of maximum.
What Deutsche Bank’s dbMetals Report Says About Gold
In a report titled “dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report”, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali, Head of Metals Research, argues that gold is “on the ropes” in sentiment terms even as prices hold roughly 10% above June lows and near levels seen immediately after Jackson Hole. The note, dated 15 September 2026, attributes the disconnect to a substantial repricing in rates and energy markets that has failed to drag bullion down in proportion.
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