Eben@CANSLIM ResearchGoldman Sachs nowcasts central bank gold purchases of 44 tonnes in July 2026, more than double the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes, with China the largest identifiable buyer at 35 tonnes. The bank retains a $4,900/oz end-2026 gold forecast and says risks to that path are skewed to the upside, while warning that dealer hedging and speculative positioning could produce sharper moves in both directions.
Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs estimates central bank gold purchases of 44 tonnes in July 2026, versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes/month, with the three-month seasonally adjusted trend at 91 tonnes/month.
- China was the largest identifiable buyer in July at 35 tonnes, according to the bank’s nowcast of London OTC flows.
- Goldman Sachs keeps its fair-value forecast of $4,900/toz by end-2026, assuming central bank purchases average 50 tonnes/month in 2026 and 40 tonnes/month in 2027.
- The bank flags a downside scenario of $4,440/toz by end-2026 if Fed-hike expectations return and trigger dealer hedge unwinds alongside ETF selling.
- Bank of England custody holdings rose 63 tonnes in July, more than offsetting declines at the New York Fed, suggesting some recent purchases are not captured in the 44-tonne nowcast.
What the Goldman Sachs Gold Report Says
In a report titled “Precious Comment: Central Bank Gold Purchasing Trend Remains Strong Through July,” Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven write that sovereign buying remains the anchor of the gold market, with their nowcast putting July central bank purchases at 44 tonnes against a pre-2022 norm of 17 tonnes. On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, the trend stands at 91 tonnes/month.
Subscribe to continue reading
Become a paid subscriber to get access to the rest of this post and other exclusive content.