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BofA on Global Fund Managers: Cash Up, Bullishness Fading — Sell Signal Holds

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

BofA’s September Global Fund Manager Survey shows investor conviction in a macro boom and fast-paced AI capex remains strong, but cash levels rose to 3.9% from 3.5% as excess bullishness faded. The survey’s broadest sentiment gauge fell to 7.0 from 8.0, the least bullish reading in three months, while a “disorderly rise in bond yields” replaced the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk at 33%. The FMS Cash Rule remains in sell-signal territory, with BofA flagging that risk exposure only becomes safe to increase once cash returns to the 4-5% neutral zone.

Key Takeaways

  • BofA’s September Global Fund Manager Survey, covering 190 panellists with $512bn in AUM, recorded a cash level of 3.9% of AUM, up from 3.5% — the biggest monthly rise since March 2026.
  • A net 8% of FMS investors expect an acceleration of already-strong global growth, while 55% predict a “no landing” outcome, 38% a “soft landing” and just 2% a “hard landing.”
  • The most crowded trade remains “long global semiconductors” at 53%, ahead of “short Treasuries” at 18% and “long Magnificent 7” at 7%.
  • 42% of investors name AI hyperscaler capex as the most likely source of a systemic credit event, up from 38% in August, while a record net 33% say companies are overinvesting.
  • FMS investors are net 48% underweight bonds, the largest underweight since May 2022, and net 33% underweight staples, the biggest since January 2004.

Lead Analysis: What the September FMS Says About Investor Sentiment

In a report titled “Global Fund Manager Survey — Racing the Frontier,” BofA Securities investment strategists Michael Hartnett, Anya Shelekhin, Myung-Jee Jung and Jessica Guo report that the September survey, conducted between 4 and 10 September 2026, shows sentiment pulling back from the very bullish August reading — then the third most bullish survey since 2022 — to the least bullish in three months. BofA’s broadest sentiment measure, combining cash levels, equity allocation and global growth expectations, fell to 7.0 from 8.0.

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