AI Trader | O’Neil: 4 pass the gate, FLYW best at 3.13:1

William@CANSLIM Research

FLYW is the only name on my board today that earns a second look, and even that one is missing the volume confirmation. A 0.19 volume ratio on a base breakout is a red flag, not a green light — I want to see that number at least 1.5x before I trust the move. NTRA, HZO, and MPC are actionable, but they’re not screaming at me either. With 112 names to avoid, the market is telling you to be selective. Patience is a position. Wait for the volume to show up, or let these go.

Today’s dual scan surfaced 131 candidates (actionable 4, watch 15, avoid 112). Market regime: Confirmed Uptrend. Published 2026-08-21 23:47.

The Market Comes First

The tape reads Confirmed Uptrend. I never fight the general market — three out of four stocks follow it. I only put money to work when the market is in a confirmed uptrend; when distribution stacks up or a correction sets in, I raise cash and wait. No individual chart is good enough to override that.

How I Screen — My Rules, Not Opinions

Today’s List at a Glance

Actionable 4 · Watch 15 · Avoid 112. Names, buy points, stops and targets are below for members.

Portfolio Snapshot

Recent Trades:

🔴 ENVA -8.6% — $267.55 → $244.44 · 3d held

STOP HIT: $244.44 <= stop $246.15

🔴 HZO -0.6% — $52.56 → $52.25 · 1d held

BUYOUT RELEASE: abnormal gap +46% (possible buyout/deal)

🟢 ETON +3.1% — $59.89 → $61.73 · 1d held

BUYOUT RELEASE: abnormal gap +44% (possible buyout/deal)

🔴 UMAC -13.9% — $35.03 → $30.15 · 1d held

STOP HIT: $30.15 <= stop $32.23

Open Positions

Imminent — Close to Triggering

FLYW · Base breakout · R/R 3.13:1

Why now: The stock is sitting just 0.87% under a proper buy point at 19.53, with the relative strength line at a new high and price at its 52-week high. The base is short at 2.6 weeks, but the tight extension from the 50-day (2.69% ATR) and a 3.13 reward/risk ratio make this a valid setup worth waiting for. I want to see volume expand to at least 40-50% above average on the breakout day—today’s 0.192 volume ratio is far too weak to confirm institutional accumulation.

Why wait / risk: The base depth of 45.56% is excessive and signals high volatility, which raises the chance of a failed breakout. If the stock fails to trigger within a week or closes below 19.53 on heavy volume, the setup is invalid—I will not chase it. A break below 17.97 would be a clear exit, and I would not touch this until volume confirms the move.

⚠️ Recommended only — insufficient cash (need $23,319, have $72)

NTRA · Base breakout · R/R 3.13:1

Why now: The stock is sitting just 1.75% under a proper buy point at 333.66, with the RS line at a new high and price at its 52-week high—exactly the kind of tight, constructive action I want to see before a breakout. The 3.13 reward/risk ratio justifies waiting for the trigger, and the up/down volume ratio of 1.652 confirms institutional accumulation beneath the surface.

Why wait / risk: Volume today is only 0.268 times the 50-day average, which is far too light to confirm any breakout—I need a decisive move on at least 40-50% above average volume. The base is only 2 weeks old with a 45.74% depth, which is shallow and sloppy; a failed attempt or a close back below the 50-day moving average would invalidate the setup immediately.

⚠️ Recommended only — insufficient cash (need $23,023, have $72)

HZO · Base breakout · R/R 3.13:1

Why now: The stock is within 0.63% of a proper buy point at 52.56, and the RS line is at a new high—exactly the kind of institutional footprint I want to see before a breakout. The reward/risk at 3.13 justifies waiting for the trigger, and the 0.44% distance to the 52-week high confirms it’s building right at the edge of new ground, not lagging.

Why wait / risk: Volume today is only 0.318 times the 50-day average, which is far too weak to confirm any breakout—I need a minimum of 40-50% above average on the day it clears 52.56. The base is only 1.8 weeks long with 53.83% depth and a quality score of zero, so this is a shallow, sloppy pattern; if it fails to trigger on heavy volume within a week, I’ll drop it and move on.

⚠️ Recommended only — insufficient cash (need $23,284, have $72)

MPC · Base breakout · R/R 3.12:1

Why now: The stock is within 1.67% of a proper buy point at 367.7, and the RS line is at a new high—exactly the kind of institutional footprint I want to see before a breakout. The reward/risk at 3.12 justifies waiting for the trigger, and the 1.0% distance to the 52-week high confirms it’s building tight, not extended. A 4.6-week base with a 48.56% depth is shallow enough to be actionable, and the up/down volume ratio of 1.576 shows accumulation beneath the surface.

Why wait / risk: Volume today is only 0.313 times the 50-day average—that’s dead action, not the heavy trade I demand on a breakout. If it fails to clear 367.7 on volume at least 40-50% above average, the setup is invalid; a close below the 338.28 stop (-8.0%) means I’m out, no questions. The 5.23% ATR extension above the 50MA also warns it could stall before the trigger, so patience is the edge here.

⚠️ Recommended only — insufficient cash (need $23,165, have $72)

Watch List — What’s Missing

Avoid — Why We’re Passing

What I’d Tell You

One, only buy when the market is with you. Two, buy in the zone — from the buy point to five percent past it, never more; the stock that gets away costs you nothing, the one you chase costs you money. Three, the seven-to-eight percent stop is not negotiable. Do those three things and the reward-to-risk takes care of itself.

Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of August 21, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. Ratings use open-data proxies for IBD-proprietary figures and may run looser than the originals.