MU Stage 2 Uptrend Intact but Deep Base Flags Elevated Failure Risk

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
MU daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

Micron (MU) is trading at 971.66, holding above a rising 30-week moving average with a Stage 2 advancing trend confirmed by 7 of 8 trend-template checks. However, the current base is a deep 39.1% correction over seven weeks, a pattern with an elevated failure rate, and no VCP contraction or breakout has yet triggered. Overall sentiment is constructive but cautious, awaiting a confirmed breakout above the 1213.37 pivot.

As of 2026-08-14 · Close $971.66

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 16.73%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 39.1% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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