HLIT Stage 2 Uptrend Intact but Deep 38% Base Flags Elevated Risk

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
HLIT daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

HLIT is holding a Stage 2 advancing trend, trading above a rising 30-week moving average with seven of eight trend-template checks passing. However, the current 11-week base is a deep 38% correction from peak, a pattern with an elevated failure rate, and the stock sits 18.6% below its pivot at 17.11. Overall sentiment is constructive but cautious, as the market awaits a confirmed breakout without a completed VCP contraction sequence.

As of 2026-08-14 · Close $13.92

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 3.2%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 38.0% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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