ORCL Stage 4 Downtrend: Deep Base Failure Risks Further Decline

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
ORCL daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research

Oracle (ORCL) is entrenched in a Stage 4 downtrend, trading below a declining 30-week moving average and failing eight of eight trend-template checks. The stock is attempting to form a 46-week base, but its 64.6% depth classifies it as a faulty deep base with an elevated failure rate. With a bearish sentiment score of -8, the technical setup suggests avoiding long positions until a proper base and breakout emerge.

As of 2026-08-12 · Close $153.28

Stage 4 (Declining) — Price below a declining 30-week MA — downtrend (30-week MA 6-week slope: -5.79%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 64.6% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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