Inflation Cools, But Euphoric Crowd Braces for a Trap

Andrew@CANSLIM RESEARCH

The CPI Print Clears the Immediate Hurdle

July inflation data landed softly on Wednesday morning. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual rate at 3.4%. That is a slight improvement from June’s 3.5% pace. Core CPI also behaved, rising 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. This takes immediate pressure off the Federal Reserve. A September rate hike now looks unlikely. Policymakers can stay patient and wait for more data. The market was already cautious heading into the report. Futures were flat, and Treasury yields were stable. The report supports risk assets near term. But it does not declare victory. Inflation is cooling, yet it remains above the Fed’s target. The central bank is still split on the next move. Traders will now watch the next batch of inflation and labor data. This single report does not confirm a downtrend. It merely buys more time.

Neocloud Earnings Ignite a Frenzy of Contradiction

The online crowd is extremely euphoric, but self-doubt runs deep. CoreWeave’s earnings ignited the entire neocloud sector. The company reported Q2 revenue of $2.58 billion, up 112% year over year. Its adjusted loss per share was $1.03, better than expected. The backlog hit a record $104 billion. Q3 guidance came in at $3.45 to $3.6 billion. New orders from Anthropic and Meta were disclosed. CRWV jumped 21.2% premarket to $106.91. NBIS also reported strong results, with revenue beating expectations and guidance raised. NBIS traded up 11.41% to $205.12 premarket. Related names IREN and APLD rose 2.6% and 2.2%. The narrative is simple: AI capex can continue through 2027. But the crowd admits the numbers do not fully add up. One sarcastic comment summarized the mood: “Revenue doubled, but costs rose faster, so this is bullish—full port.” Another noted NBIS is up because it now loses more money per share. The euphoria is real, yet the fear of a reversal at the open is equally strong.

Korean Memory Surge Leaves a Key Laggard Behind

The Korean memory-chip supply chain erupted again. The KOSPI closed up 3.68%, with Samsung Electronics up 6.68% and SK hynix up 5.54%. Foreign investors bought roughly $2 billion worth of shares. The catalyst was a report that Temasek might take direct stakes in the two chipmakers. In the U.S., SNDK rose 6.9% premarket to $1,323.96. SOXL gained 8.8%. But MU only managed a 0.58% gain to $867.04. This asymmetric follow-through is telling. The featured chart for this analysis is SNDK, which currently shows the weakest technical pattern among the leaders. The stock is moving on sector momentum, not on its own strength. The online crowd celebrates the memory surge, but the laggards reveal a fragile bid. When the sector leader cannot confirm the move, the rally lacks conviction. SNDK needs to prove it can hold these gains, not just bounce with the tide.

The Crowd’s Cynical Loop and the Fear of Green

The highest-heat topic in the online community is not that CPI will be good. It is that CPI will be made to look good no matter what. Memes of chefs and barbecue fill the threads. The logic is a closed loop: low data leads to rate cuts, so stocks rise. High data is already priced in, so investors must hold assets to hedge inflation, so stocks also rise. A few rational voices warn that CPI is just a repricing event. The real direction comes from capital flows after the open. Others ask a sharp question: “If it’s cooked every time, why does anyone still lose money?” The fear/greed level sits at 78 out of 100, firmly in greed territory. Phrases like “full port” and “3x leverage” dominate. Yet multiple users say, “It’s too green, I don’t like it.” The crowd is split between going all-in and waiting to get dumped on. This is not pure conviction. It is euphoria mixed with the muscle memory of past reversals.

Geopolitical Noise and Policy Signals Add Fuel

Geopolitics added another layer of uncertainty. Trump claimed the U.S. has “100% control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied the claim and said the strait would not reopen until U.S. behavior changes. WTI crude has already surged for two consecutive days, trading above $82. Separately, the White House is reportedly considering indexing capital gains for inflation. The community views this as a signal that policymakers intend to “let inflation run.” This is a bullish read for hard assets and growth stocks. SMCI rose 9.4% premarket following earnings. NOK jumped 12.8% on an AI and optical-module order narrative. The market is rewarding any story tied to AI infrastructure. But the geopolitical risk to oil prices is a wildcard. Higher energy costs could reignite inflation pressures. The crowd is ignoring this for now, focused on the earnings momentum.

The Technical Test That Will Define the Next Move

The real test comes after the open. Premarket moves are often reversed, and the crowd knows it. The indexes are mixed, with SPY down 0.04% and QQQ up 0.31%. All risk appetite is concentrated in individual stocks. The leaders are CRWV, NBIS, and the memory complex. The laggard is SNDK, which shows the weakest technical pattern. The market needs breadth to confirm this rally. A single sector cannot carry the tape forever. The inflation report removes an immediate hurdle, but it does not change the underlying split at the Fed. The next CPI and labor reports will matter more. The crowd is greedy but cautious, ready to buy the dip and equally ready to sell the rip. This is a market of high leverage and low conviction. The winners will be the stocks with real earnings and technical strength. The losers will be those riding sector momentum without their own foundation. Watch SNDK closely. If it cannot hold its gains, the memory trade is weaker than it looks. If it breaks out on volume, the rally has legs. The data is friendly, but the tape will tell the truth.

Sources: market news brief & global social sentiment data. Updated 2026-08-12 21:17 HKT. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.