AndrewAAMI is trading at $91.56, just 0.4% below its 52-week high, with all eight trend-template checks passing. The stock is in a Stage 2 advance, holding above a rising 30-week MA, and has formed a tight bull flag after a 28.7% run. With a bullish sentiment score of 7, the setup points to an offensive posture as the market focuses on a potential breakout above the $91.92 pivot.
Technical Analysis
As of 2026-08-06 · Close $91.56
Stage Analysis
Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact
(30-week MA 6-week slope: 10.16%)
Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching
- Bull Flag after a 28.7% run, currently 0.4% off the flag high
Minervini Trend Template — 8/8 Criteria Passed
| Criterion | Status |
|---|---|
| Price > 150MA & 200MA | ✅ Pass |
| 150MA > 200MA | ✅ Pass |
| 200MA trending up (>=1 month) | ✅ Pass |
| 50MA > 150MA & 200MA | ✅ Pass |
| Price > 50MA | ✅ Pass |
| Price >= 30% above 52wk low | ✅ Pass |
| Price within 25% of 52wk high | ✅ Pass |
| RS Line at/near 3-month high | ✅ Pass |
Price is -0.4% off its 52-week high and 119.1% above its 52-week low.
Pattern Sentiment
Bullish — offensive setup in place (composite score: 7)
Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI) — Institutional Research Report
Date: August 7, 2026 | Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Asset Management | Ticker: AAMI (NYSE)
1. Company Overview &Amp; Business Model
Acadian Asset Management Inc. is a Boston-based, publicly owned asset management holding company (formerly BrightSphere Investment Group plc). Founded in 1980, the firm provides investment management services to institutional clients and individuals, managing separate client-focused portfolios and launching equity mutual funds. The firm invests across public equity, fixed income, and alternative investment markets through its subsidiaries. AAMI is a systematic, quantitative asset manager, relying on proprietary models and data-driven strategies.
Revenue Streams &Amp; Segment Breakdown
| Revenue Source | Description | % of Total Revenue (FY2025 est.) |
|---|---|---|
| Management Fees (Base) | Fees charged as a percentage of AUM across equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies. | ~85% (estimate) |
| Performance Fees | Incentive fees earned on outperformance above benchmarks, primarily in alternative and equity strategies. | ~10% (estimate) |
| Other Income | Includes distribution fees, service fees, and other ancillary income. | ~5% (estimate) |
Geographic Exposure (estimate): North America ~60%, Europe ~25%, Asia-Pacific ~15% of AUM. The firm has a strong international presence with offices in London, Singapore, Sydney, and Tokyo.
Growth Drivers
- Expansion of systematic and quant strategies, which are gaining institutional traction.
- Growth in alternative risk premia and fixed income systematic strategies.
- Increasing demand for customized, model-driven portfolios over traditional active management.
2. Supply Chain &Amp; Customer Base
Key Customers
As an asset manager, AAMI’s clients are predominantly institutional investors. The largest clients are typically public and corporate pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and large endowments. Based on industry disclosures, the top 10 clients likely represent approximately 40-50% of revenues (estimate). No single client is believed to exceed 10% of total revenue based on historical filings.
Key Suppliers
The primary “suppliers” are AAMI’s own employees—portfolio managers, quantitative researchers, and data scientists. Compensation and benefits represent the largest operating expense. Additionally, the firm relies on third-party data providers (e.g., Bloomberg, MSCI, FactSet) and technology infrastructure vendors. These costs are estimated at ~10-15% of total operating expenses (estimate).
3. Financial Statement Analysis
Balance Sheet Health (FY2025)
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-Equity | 193.3 | High leverage; however, common equity is small due to a large minority interest and past distributions. |
| Current Ratio | 0.60 | Below 1.0; indicates potential short-term liquidity pressure, though typical for asset managers with predictable fee cash flows. |
| Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest Exp.) | 7.6x | Adequate coverage of interest obligations. |
| Total Debt | $257.5M | Includes a $200M line of credit drawn in 2025 and $61.4M in capital lease obligations. |
| Cash & Equivalents | $64.6M | Modest cash buffer relative to debt. |
Income Statement — 5-Year Historical &Amp; 2-Year Estimates
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | Revenue Growth (%) | Net Income ($M) | Net Income Growth (%) | Gross Margin (%) | Operating Margin (%) | Diluted EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 417.2 | — | 100.6 | — | — | 40.3% | 2.33 |
| 2022 | 417.2 | 0.0% | 100.6 | 0.0% | 61.7% | 40.3% | 2.33 |
| 2023 | 426.6 | 2.3% | 65.8 | -34.6% | 48.3% | 24.8% | 1.55 |
| 2024 | 505.6 | 18.5% | 85.0 | 29.2% | 47.3% | 26.8% | 2.22 |
| 2025 | 563.7 | 11.5% | 80.0 | -5.9% | 42.7% | 23.4% | 2.21 |
| 2026E | 640.0 | 13.5% | 105.0 | 31.3% | ~43% | ~24% | 2.90 |
| 2027E | 710.0 | 10.9% | 120.0 | 14.3% | ~44% | ~25% | 3.35 |
Note: 2026-2027 figures are estimates based on current momentum, AUM growth, and management guidance. Trailing P/E (based on FY2025 EPS of $2.21) is 38.96x. Forward P/E (based on 2026E EPS of $2.90) is 14.17x.
Cash Flow Analysis
| Fiscal Year | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | CapEx ($M) | Free Cash Flow ($M) | FCF Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | — | -16.1 | — | — |
| 2022 | 116.8 | -16.1 | 100.7 | 24.1% |
| 2023 | 68.3 | -13.8 | 54.5 | 12.8% |
| 2024 | 54.9 | -9.9 | 45.9 | 9.1% |
| 2025 | -2.4 | -11.9 | -14.3 | -2.5% |
The company was consistently cash-flow positive from 2022-2024. However, FY2025 saw a significant deterioration, with negative free cash flow of -$14.3M, driven by a large increase in receivables and a decline in operating cash flow. This is a key watch item. The firm’s cash position increased to $124.4M at year-end 2025 from $98.5M in 2024, primarily due to debt issuance ($337M) offset by debt repayment ($413M).
4. Risk &Amp; Catalyst Assessment (Next 12 Months)
Key Risks
| Risk Factor | Potential Impact |
|---|---|
| Market Downturn / Volatility | A sustained bear market would reduce AUM and management fees, pressuring revenue and margins. |
| Client Redemptions | Underperformance in quant strategies could trigger institutional outflows, particularly in the alternative and equity segments. |
| Key Person / Talent Risk | Loss of senior quantitative researchers or portfolio managers could impair strategy performance and client confidence. |
| High Leverage | With a debt-to-equity ratio of 193%, a rise in interest rates or a downgrade could increase financing costs and strain cash flows. |
| Regulatory Scrutiny | Increased SEC or FCA oversight on systematic trading models and fee structures could lead to compliance costs or reputational damage. |
Positive Catalysts
| Catalyst | Potential Upside |
|---|---|
| AUM Growth Momentum | Revenue growth of 45.3% (latest quarter YoY) suggests strong net inflows; continued momentum would drive fee income higher. |
| Earnings Growth Acceleration | Earnings growth of 171.4% (latest quarter YoY) indicates operating leverage is kicking in; sustained growth could lead to EPS upgrades. |
| New Product Launches | Expansion into new systematic fixed income or multi-asset strategies could attract new institutional mandates. |
| Share Buybacks | With a forward P/E of 14.2x, management may resume aggressive buybacks, supporting EPS and share price. |
5. Competitive Landscape &Amp; Related Equities
Direct Competitors
| Company | Ticker | Market Share (est.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man Group plc | EMG (LSE) | ~15% | Largest listed pure-play quant manager globally. |
| Winton Group | Private | ~5% | Privately held; major competitor in managed futures. |
| Two Sigma Investments | Private | ~10% | Large quant hedge fund and systematic manager. |
| BlackRock (Systematic Arm) | BLK | ~20% | Dominant in factor-based and index strategies. |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | Private | ~10% | Competitor in systematic equity strategies. |
Related Equities &Amp; Correlations
| Ticker | Relationship |
|---|---|
| BLK (BlackRock) | Largest global asset manager; AAMI competes for institutional mandates but also benefits from overall industry AUM trends. |
| APO (Apollo Global Management) | Alternative asset manager; shares similar investor sentiment regarding fee pressure and alternative strategies. |
| KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) | Alternative asset manager; often mentioned in the same breath for institutional allocation trends. |
| BEN (Franklin Resources) | Traditional asset manager facing similar secular headwinds from passive investing and fee compression. |
6. Investment Thesis
Bull Case
- Strong Revenue Momentum: Revenue growth of 45.3% in the latest quarter (Q1 2026) demonstrates robust client demand and AUM expansion.
- Attractive Valuation: Forward P/E of 14.2x is reasonable for a company with accelerating earnings growth (171.4% YoY).
- Operating Leverage: As AUM grows, fixed costs are spread over a larger base, driving margin expansion and EPS growth.
- Quant Tailwinds: Institutional investors are increasingly allocating to systematic strategies, benefiting AAMI’s core business.
Bear Case
- Negative Free Cash Flow: FY2025 FCF was -$14.3M, a significant deterioration from prior years; this raises questions about earnings quality and capital allocation.
- High Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 193% and a current ratio of 0.60x expose the company to liquidity and refinancing risks.
- Performance Fee Volatility: A portion of revenue is tied to performance fees, which are inherently unpredictable and can cause earnings swings.
- Competitive Pressure: The quant space is crowded with well-capitalized players (BlackRock, Man Group) that can outspend AAMI on data and technology.
7. Capital Raising &Amp; Corporate Actions (Last 6 Months &Amp; Projections)
Recent Capital Raising Activities (Feb 2026 – Aug 2026)
| Date (est.) | Activity | Amount | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | Line of Credit Draw | $200M | Drew down on revolving credit facility (shown as current debt on FY2025 balance sheet). |
| Q1 2026 | Debt Repayment | $413M | Repaid a portion of existing term loans and notes. |
| Q2 2026 | Share Repurchases | ~$15M (est.) | Continued buyback program; shares outstanding reduced from 37.5M to 35.7M over the past year. |
Projected Capital Raising (Next 6 Months: Aug 2026 – Feb 2027)
| Projected Activity | Likelihood | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Refinancing of $200M Line of Credit | High | The current debt matures within 12 months; expect refinancing or extension. |
| Continued Share Buybacks | Moderate | Depending on FCF recovery; management has historically returned capital via buybacks. |
| Potential Dividend Initiation | Low | Given negative FCF, a dividend is unlikely in the near term. |
| Equity Issuance | Low | Unlikely given current leverage; would be dilutive. |
All figures sourced from Yahoo Finance (as of 2026-08-07) unless otherwise noted. Items marked as “estimate” are analyst projections based on available data and industry knowledge.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (as of August 07, 2026) and company filings; all estimates not explicitly sourced from the provided data are clearly labeled as such. The analysis may contain errors — always verify against primary filings (10-K/10-Q/8-K) before making any investment decision.
