US Market Radar — Risk-Off; EPOL Sets Up a Double Bottom (July 31, 2026)

As of July 31, 2026, 59 of 78 tracked ETFs and indexes closed higher on the day (average +2.4%), while 30 of 78 are up over the past month (average -2.7%). Across the universe, 30 instruments are in a Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend, 8 are in a Stage 4 decline, and 9 currently pass the full Minervini trend template. Breadth has deteriorated and money is rotating into defensives and bonds — a risk-off tape. Below are the charts the market is focused on right now, with the key patterns and levels annotated.

SPY · Broad Market Indexes — Cautious

SPY is classified as Stage 3 (topping / distribution) and is within a normal volatility band. It trades -0.3% versus its 50-day moving average (-0.3x ATR extension), with returns of +1.7% on the day, +0.5% on the week and -0.7% on the month. Sentiment: Cautious. Flat Base — ~6-week sideways range of 3% after a 19% advance; buy point at 754.95.

QQQ · Broad Market Indexes — Cautious

QQQ is classified as Stage 3 (topping / distribution) and is over-sold below the 50-day line. It trades -4.4% versus its 50-day moving average (-2.1x ATR extension), with returns of +3.3% on the day, -1.2% on the week and -7.2% on the month. Sentiment: Cautious. Flat Base — ~6-week sideways range of 11% after a 31% advance; buy point at 739.81.

EPOL · International & Regional — Bullish

EPOL is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is over-extended above the 50-day line. It trades +7.1% versus its 50-day moving average (+4.4x ATR extension), with returns of +2.9% on the day, +4.9% on the week and +10.7% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. Double Bottom — W-shape with two lows within 3%; buy point at middle peak 40.69. Flat Base — ~6-week sideways range of 11% after a 19% advance; buy point at 42.76.

SCHD · Size & Style — Bullish

SCHD is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is over-extended above the 50-day line. It trades +3.2% versus its 50-day moving average (+2.5x ATR extension), with returns of -1.2% on the day, +1.9% on the week and +5.4% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.

XPH · US Sectors — Bullish

XPH is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is over-extended above the 50-day line. It trades +10.2% versus its 50-day moving average (+4.4x ATR extension), with returns of +1.5% on the day, +1.8% on the week and +5.2% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.

URA · Commodities & Resources — Bearish

URA is classified as Stage 4 (declining downtrend) and is over-sold below the 50-day line. It trades -10.9% versus its 50-day moving average (-2.8x ATR extension), with returns of +5.9% on the day, -3.4% on the week and -9.1% on the month. Sentiment: Bearish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.

Sector money flow (1-month average)

• International & Regional: +3.8% average one-month return
• US Sectors: +0.8% average one-month return
• Size & Style: -0.3% average one-month return
• Broad Market Indexes: -2.2% average one-month return
• Bonds & Defensives: -2.5% average one-month return
• Commodities & Resources: -4.6% average one-month return
• Themes & Growth: -9.7% average one-month return

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Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. For reference and education only — not investment advice.