Eben@CANSLIM ResearchMorgan Stanley has reiterated an Overweight rating on Chagee Holdings Ltd (CHA.O, CHA US) with a US$15.50 price target, implying 27% upside to the US$12.19 close of September 16, 2026. The call follows the bank’s China BEST Conference, where management flagged that August same-store sales growth (SSSG) improved to flat from below -5% in July. The decisive point for investors is that 2026 guidance is unchanged at flat year on year, with a positive turn only targeted for 2027.
Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley rates Chagee Holdings Ltd (CHA) Overweight with a US$15.50 price target, versus a September 16, 2026 close of US$12.19.
- Chagee’s China SSSG moved from below -5% in July to flat in August on promotions and new products; a high-single-digit September would turn 3Q26 SSSG positive.
- Chagee’s 2026 sales and non-GAAP net profit guidance remain unchanged at flat year on year, with management targeting positive single-digit SSSG and net profit improvement in 2027.
- Chagee expects cumulative buybacks of roughly US$100 million by year-end and is weighing a regular dividend framework.
- Chagee targets 100 overseas openings in 2H26, with the US reaching about 20 stores by year-end; Malaysia SSSG has turned positive and Singapore has reached country-level breakeven.
What Morgan Stanley Said in the China BEST Conference Takeaways Note
In a report titled “Chagee Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific — China BEST Conference Takeaways”, Morgan Stanley analyst Lillian Lou, alongside Carlos Liu, CFA, and research associate Charlotte Zhou, sets out management commentary gathered at the firm’s China BEST Conference. The stock carries an Overweight rating against an In-Line industry view for China/Hong Kong consumer names.
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