Eben@CANSLIM ResearchGoldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong argue that depressed consumer sentiment is no longer a reliable read on the US economy. In a report dated 17 September 2026, they show sentiment sitting well below the level implied by unemployment, inflation and household wealth, both in the US and across most developed markets. The cause, they conclude, is a broader downbeat assessment of the state of the world — not the economy itself.
Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong find that the average of the University of Michigan and Conference Board sentiment gauges sits well below the level implied by the US unemployment rate, headline inflation and the wealth-to-income ratio.
- Sentiment is below model-predicted levels in almost all developed markets, not just the US, according to the report.
- Morning Consult data show sentiment remains below 2019 levels for every US group examined — by income, wealth, generation, social media use, political party and homeownership.
- University of Chicago General Social Survey data show a sharp fall in overall happiness since 2020 that has not recovered, and the decline is far larger than the change in how people view their own finances.
- Goldman Sachs concludes consumer sentiment may not improve for the foreseeable future even if the economy keeps outperforming, making it a less useful tool for predicting economic dynamics.
What the Goldman Sachs Report Actually Says
In a report titled “Global Economics Comment: Is Poor Economic Sentiment Really About the Economy?”, Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong set out to explain a persistent puzzle: sentiment collapsed in 2020 and has stayed depressed despite a healthy labour market, a booming stock market, and solid consumer spending and GDP growth.
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