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Goldman Sachs on DELL: Server Share Gains Accelerate — Buy, $570 Target

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Goldman Sachs has updated its industry server model on the latest 2Q26 data from 650 Group and IDC, showing traditional server growth accelerating sharply on pricing while AI server growth became more balanced between units and ASPs. Dell Technologies (DELL) gained share in both traditional and AI servers year-over-year, with 650 Group estimating its traditional server revenue rose 278% year-over-year to $11.3bn and its traditional market share climbing to 29% from 15%. Goldman Sachs remains Buy-rated on DELL with a $570 12-month target price, Sell-rated on Super Micro Computer (SMCI) at $34, and Buy-rated on Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) at $75, all unchanged.

Key Takeaways

  • 650 Group estimates the industry traditional compute market grew +91% in 2Q26 versus +24% in 1Q26, with a -9% decline in units offset by +111% growth in ASPs.
  • Dell Technologies (DELL) traditional server revenue reached roughly $11.3bn in C2Q26, up 278% year-over-year, lifting its traditional server share to 29% from 15% a year earlier, per 650 Group.
  • Goldman Sachs holds a Buy rating and $570 target price on DELL, a Sell rating and $34 target on SMCI, and a Buy rating and $75 target on HPE, all unchanged.
  • 650 Group raised its 2026–2030 traditional server forecasts by roughly 17% on average and its AI server forecasts by about 4% on average, now expecting the total server market to reach $1.5tr by 2030 at a 39% CAGR.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) lost AI server share (8% in 2Q26 versus 9% in 2Q25) but gained traditional server share, rising to 10% from 4%.

What Goldman Sachs’ Server 2Q26 Update Says

In a report titled “Americas Technology: Hardware: Server 2Q26 market share and outlook update,” Goldman Sachs analysts Katherine Murphy and Michael Ng, CFA, update the firm’s industry server model to reflect the latest available 2Q26 data from 650 Group and IDC. The note, dated 15 September 2026, frames the quarter around two themes: accelerating traditional server growth driven by pricing, and more balanced AI server growth split between units and ASPs.

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