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Barclays on Moderna: Melanoma Win, RCC Next — Equal Weight, $125 PT

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

Barclays has maintained an Equal Weight rating on Moderna (MRNA) while raising its price target to $125, after hosting management for an investor meeting in New York following positive Phase 3 data for intismeran autogene in adjuvant melanoma. The melanoma win is a proof of concept for mRNA-based personalised cancer therapy, but the shares now trade above Barclays’ target, implying roughly 13.9% downside from the $145.13 reference price. Attention shifts to the undisclosed hazard ratio, due at a medical meeting in the autumn, and to the Phase 2b renal cell carcinoma readout expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

Key Takeaways

  • Barclays analyst Eliana Merle kept an Equal Weight rating on Moderna (MRNA) and set a price target of $125, against a reference price of $145.13 on 21 August 2026, implying 13.9% downside.
  • Moderna’s Phase 3 trial of intismeran autogene plus Keytruda in adjuvant melanoma hit both RFS and DMFS at the first interim analysis, the first time any therapeutic has shown a benefit over Keytruda alone in adjuvant melanoma.
  • MRNA shares rose about 177% on 19 August on the data, versus a roughly 6% gain for the XBI biotech index, before pulling back about 17% over 20-21 August.
  • Management signalled a shift in focus towards renal cell carcinoma (RCC) from muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), viewing the MIBC Phase 2b as informational rather than registrational.
  • Moderna has treated roughly 3,000 patients across 40 countries with intismeran and says it already operates at the manufacturing scale needed for an initial melanoma launch.

What Barclays Said in Its Moderna NDR Note

In a report titled “Moderna — NDR Takes Post INT Data: Melanoma trial success a key positive, RCC readout next to watch,” Barclays’ Eliana Merle argues that success in adjuvant melanoma was a key positive for the shares and that the debate now turns to where else intismeran can work. The note follows a non-deal roadshow in New York with Moderna president Stephen Hoge and head of investor relations Lavina Talukdar.

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