SMCI Holds Stage 2 Uptrend but Deep 65% Base Keeps Breakout on Hold

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
SMCI daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY, Stage 2 (Advancing), as of September 12, 2026 at 21:55 - CANSLIM Research

SMCI is trading at 40.10 in a Stage 2 advancing trend, holding above a rising 30-week moving average with a constructive sentiment score of 3. The market’s focus is on a deep 65% base spanning 47 weeks, flagged as faulty with an elevated failure rate, while a recent 45.2% run and tight 0.4% pullback hint at a possible bull flag. Overall sentiment is constructive but unconfirmed, with the stock still 31.7% below its 52-week high and awaiting a decisive breakout above the 58.68 pivot.

As of 2026-09-11 · Close $40.1

Stage 2 (Advancing) — Price holding above a rising 30-week MA — uptrend intact (30-week MA 6-week slope: 3.89%)

⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 65.0% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.

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