Jesse LivermoreMRK is acting right. Volume nearly three times normal, price through a round number, and the trend is confirmed. That is the kind of stock that earns a probe, not a full commitment. The 47 names I avoid are the real lesson. A market that gives me one breakout and thirty-three near-misses is telling me the line of least resistance is not yet clear. I do not force trades. BAGX, CIBR, GRMN failed because they were not ready. Time was not right. I wait for the tape to prove itself again, and I keep my powder dry until it does.
Disclaimer: The Jesse Livermore AI Trader. Trained on How to Trade in Stocks (1940) and Reminiscences (1923). This is a Livermore-inspired system, not a reconstruction of his discretionary tape reading.
· Educational Only: AI is prone to hallucinations and errors. All plans are strictly for education.
· Static Logic: Autonomous self-improving logic permanently disabled.
The Tape Comes First
Market: Confirmed Uptrend. Today the tape says go.
Century Marks
$100, $200, $300, $500, $1000 — where orders pile up. Through on volume = real demand. Stalls or falls back = the opposite.
| State | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| BREAKOUT | Through, volume confirms | Probe |
| APPROACHING | Under the number | Watch |
| FAILED | Broke then fell back | Avoid |
Today
Scanned 81. Breakout 1 · Approaching 33 · Avoid 47.
Portfolio Snapshot
Starting Capital: $100,000
Current Equity: $99,035 (-1.0%)
Cash: $20,644
Exposure: 79% · Positions: 4
Max Drawdown: -2.4%
Open Positions
| Symbol | Shares | Entry | Current | P&L | Stop | Target | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIOD | 198 | $100.10 | $94.32 | -5.8% | $90.00 | $120.00 | 3 |
| AIR | 132 | $150.10 | $139.17 | -7.3% | $135.00 | $180.00 | 2 |
| HAE | 200 | $100.10 | $108.41 | +8.2% | $90.00 | $120.00 | 1 |
| MRK | 131 | $150.10 | $150.10 | +0.0% | $135.00 | $180.00 | 0 |
Through the Number
MRK · $150 · BREAKOUT
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Century Mark | $150 |
| Price | $152.2 (1.47%) |
| Probe Entry | $150.1 |
| Stop | $135.0 (-10%) |
| R/R | 1.98:1 |
| Volume | +295% |
| Stage | 2 |
| Grade | B |
| Short Float | 0.0111% |
| Earnings | Oct 29 (70d) |
| Group | Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences |
Why now: MRK has finally pushed through that $150 ceiling on rising volume, and the tape is telling me the line of least resistance has turned upward. The stock is acting right—holding above the mark after the probe, and with the short interest thin, there's no crowd of bears to fuel a squeeze, just clean institutional accumulation. I'm in at 150.1 because the breakout is confirmed, not predicted, and a Stage 2 advance with a B grade is worth pyramiding once the first position proves itself.
Why wait: Waiting would only cost me the momentum that's already been paid for in price and volume, and a stock that breaks out and holds is not one to second-guess. If it fails back under 150, I'll be out with a small loss, but hesitation is the enemy of a trader who trusts the tape over opinion.
Gathering Below — Watch
ALNT · $100 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $100 |
| Price | $101.81 (1.81%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $100
CBOX · $100 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $100 |
| Price | $101.41 (1.41%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $100
CIB · $100 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $100 |
| Price | $99.67 (-0.33%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $100
CRWD · $200 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $200 |
| Price | $201.63 (0.81%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $200
DCO · $200 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $200 |
| Price | $200.16 (0.08%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $200
DUOL · $150 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $150 |
| Price | $146.03 (-2.65%) |
| Stage | 2A |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $150
ECPG · $100 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $100 |
| Price | $101.26 (1.26%) |
| Stage | 2 |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $100
EL · $100 · APPROACHING
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mark | $100 |
| Price | $98.01 (-1.99%) |
| Stage | 2A |
| Action | Watch. React, don't anticipate. |
coiling under $100
Stay Away
| Symbol | Mark | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ACA | $150 | extended past $150 |
| AMAT | $500 | stage 3A |
| ARGX | $1000 | extended past $1000 |
| ATLC | $100 | stage 3A |
| BAGX | $100 | failed below $100 |
| BX | $150 | extended past $150 |
| CAMT | $150 | stage 3 |
| CIBR | $100 | failed below $100 |
| CIEN | $400 | stage 3 |
| EMXC | $100 | stage 3A |
| EWT | $100 | extended past $100 |
| FTNT | $150 | stage 3A |
| GGLL | $100 | stage 4 |
| GHM | $100 | stage 3A |
| GLTR | $200 | stage 4B- |
| GLW | $150 | stage 3 |
| GRMN | $300 | failed below $300 |
| HLNE | $100 | stage 1A |
| HOOD | $100 | stage N/A |
| HQY | $100 | extended past $100 |
What I’d Tell You
When a leader goes through on volume, probe small. When it fails, walk away. When nothing breaks, do nothing. The big money is in the waiting.
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. Data as of August 20, 2026. For informational and educational purposes only — not investment advice. Always verify against primary sources before making any investment decision. Livermore-inspired system. All thresholds are modern defaults.
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