IBM Stage 4 Downtrend: Deep Base Signals Caution

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
IBM daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

IBM is currently in a Stage 4 declining trend, trading below its falling 30-week moving average. The technical setup reveals a deep base pattern with a 37.5% depth, which historically carries an elevated failure rate. Overall sentiment is bearish, with all eight trend template checks failing and the stock down 28.3% from its high, suggesting investors should remain defensive.

Technical Analysis

As of 2026-08-14 · Close $234.32

Stage Analysis

Stage 4 (Declining) — Price below a declining 30-week MA — downtrend (30-week MA 6-week slope: -4.58%)

Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching

  • Deep Base (>33% — elevated failure rate) — depth 37.5%, length 10 weeks, pivot $326.89. Base formed from 2026-06-02 (left-side high) to 2026-08-14, with the low of $204.3 set on 2026-07-22

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