Eben@CANSLIM ResearchSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) is exhibiting a Stage 3 topping pattern, with price churning around a flat 30-week moving average. The market is focused on a 65% deep base that has failed to produce a breakout, raising the risk of a breakdown. Overall sentiment is cautious and deteriorating, as the stock sits 46% below its high and fails most trend-template checks.
Technical Analysis
As of 2026-08-11 · Close $31.6
Stage Analysis
Stage 3 (Topping) — Price churning around the 30-week MA — topping consolidation (30-week MA 6-week slope: -1.1%)
Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching
- Deep Base (>33% — elevated failure rate) — depth 65.0%, length 42 weeks, pivot $58.68. Base formed from 2025-10-08 (left-side high) to 2026-08-11, with the low of $20.53 set on 2026-03-20
- Bull Flag after a 33.0% run, currently 0.3% off the flag high
⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 65.0% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.
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