U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday. The Dow jumped 600 points. Lower oil prices helped stocks. But doubts about AI and chip stocks hurt the Nasdaq. The market is waiting for the Fed decision and big tech earnings this week.
Oil prices fell hard. Brent crude dropped about 4.9%. WTI fell more than 5%. The reason is a pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities. The market thinks the risk of a supply disruption is lower for now. This is good for stocks that need cheap fuel, like airlines and travel companies.
But the relief is not clean. Tech stocks are under pressure. People are questioning the high spending on AI and chips. The Nasdaq is still weak. This tension between lower oil and tech doubts will drive the market this week.
Global Social Sentiment
The online crowd is in deep fear. The mood is not about making money. It is about who lost the most. People are talking about deleting their trading apps. They are moving to cash. The fear level is very low, around 15 to 20 out of 100.
The crowd is focused on memory chip stocks. SNDK fell about 12% in one day. It is now nearly half of its June high. MU and WDC also fell hard. The trigger was a big IPO in China for a memory chip company. That caused a selloff in the whole memory supply chain.
The crowd’s pain is real. But it is not in the broad market. The S&P 500 was almost flat. The Dow went up. The crowd is hurt because they own high-risk stocks like chips, space, and crypto. They feel like the world is ending. But the main indexes are not crashing.
Key Risks
The biggest risk is that the oil truce breaks. Fighting resumed overnight in Iraq. Explosions hit near the U.S. consulate. A gas field was attacked. If the truce fails, oil can reverse fast. That would hurt stocks again.
Another risk is the Fed decision on Wednesday. One analyst from Citadel Securities predicted a surprise rate hike. The market only sees a 40% chance. If the Fed hikes, it would shock everyone. That would be bad for growth stocks.
Tech earnings are also a risk. Big companies like AAPL and MSFT report this week. Their results will test the AI spending story. If they show weak demand, chip stocks could fall more. The crowd is already very bearish on chips.
What to Watch
Watch oil prices closely. If WTI stays below $83, it helps stocks. If it jumps back up, the relief trade is over.
Watch the Fed on Wednesday. The decision and comments will set the tone for rates.
Watch big tech earnings. AAPL, MSFT, and others will show if AI spending is real or a bubble.
Watch South Korea. The crowd is obsessed with a crash there. Korean retail investors use a lot of leverage. If they get forced to sell, it can hit U.S. chip stocks again. The crowd thinks this is a self-reinforcing cycle.
Bottom Line
The market is pulled in two directions. Lower oil is a tailwind. But tech doubts and a fearful crowd are headwinds. The crowd is panicking in chips, but the broad market is calm. This week’s Fed decision and big tech earnings will decide which force wins. Stay cautious and watch the headlines.
Sources: market news brief & global social sentiment data. Updated 2026-07-28 09:43 HKT. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.
Discover more from CANSLIM Research
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.