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SQM Cup-with-Handle Fails at Pivot; Stage 3→4 Decline Risk Builds

Posted on by Eben@CANSLIM Research
SQM daily stock chart with 10, 20, 50, 150 and 200-day moving averages, volume and RS line versus SPY — CANSLIM Research
Eben@CANSLIM Research's avatarEben@CANSLIM Research

SQM is tracing a 16-week Cup with Handle that has broken down through its 30-week moving average, signaling a transition from Stage 3 to early Stage 4 distribution. The handle’s low at 76.43 was tagged on September 4, with price now 19.2% below the 82.33 pivot and failing to confirm a breakout. Overall sentiment remains constructive but cautious, as the market awaits a decisive reclaim of the pivot to invalidate the topping risk.

Technical Analysis

As of 2026-09-04 · Close $76.43

Stage Analysis

Stage 3→4 (Topping / Early Decline) — 30-week MA flattening and price breaking below it — distribution risk (30-week MA 6-week slope: 0.08%)

Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching

  • Cup with Handle — depth 29.9%, length 16 weeks, pivot $82.33. Base formed from 2026-05-12 (left-side high) to 2026-08-24, with the low of $66.33 set on 2026-07-16
  • Handle: formed from 2026-08-24 (high $82.33) to 2026-09-04 (low $76.43) — a 7.2% pullback
  • Bull Flag after a 23.1% run, currently 7.2% off the flag high

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