Eben@CANSLIM ResearchBilibili (BILI) remains entrenched in a Stage 4 decline, trading at $16.57, well below its declining 30-week moving average. The stock is attempting to form a 29-week base, but its 55.6% depth classifies it as a faulty deep base with an elevated failure rate, and no valid breakout has occurred.
All eight trend-template checks fail, with the price sitting 53.9% off its high and only 3.8% above the 52-week low. The overall sentiment is bearish, and the lack of a VCP or any bullish flag pattern suggests traders should remain defensive and avoid this name until a proper institutional-grade setup emerges.
Technical Analysis
As of 2026-08-25 · Close $16.57
Stage Analysis
Stage 4 (Declining) — Price below a declining 30-week MA — downtrend (30-week MA 6-week slope: -9.47%)
Detected Patterns — What the Market Is Watching
- Deep Base (>33% — elevated failure rate) — depth 55.6%, length 29 weeks, pivot $35.92. Base formed from 2026-01-28 (left-side high) to 2026-08-25, with the low of $15.96 set on 2026-06-23
- Bear Flag below the 50-day moving average
⚠️ Faulty cup warning: the base is 55.6% deep (above the 38–40% threshold). A correction this deep leaves heavy overhead supply — trapped holders from higher prices are likely to sell into any rally, raising the failure rate of a breakout from this base.
Subscribe to continue reading
Become a paid subscriber to get access to the rest of this post and other exclusive content.
