As of July 20, 2026, 17 of 78 tracked ETFs and indexes closed higher on the day (average -0.6%), while 27 of 78 are up over the past month (average -4.0%). Across the universe, 31 instruments are in a Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend, 5 are in a Stage 4 decline, and 9 currently pass the full Minervini trend template. Breadth has deteriorated and money is rotating into defensives and bonds — a risk-off tape. Below are the charts the market is focused on right now, with the key patterns and levels annotated.
SPY · Broad Market Indexes — Constructive
SPY is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is tightening just above the 50-day line (setup zone). It trades +0.0% versus its 50-day moving average (+0.0x ATR extension), with returns of -1.0% on the day, -1.5% on the week and -0.7% on the month. Sentiment: Constructive. Flat Base — ~6-week sideways range of 4% after a 19% advance; buy point at 755.14.
QQQ · Broad Market Indexes — Bearish
QQQ is classified as Stage 3 (topping / distribution) and is within a normal volatility band. It trades -3.2% versus its 50-day moving average (-1.5x ATR extension), with returns of -1.5% on the day, -4.2% on the week and -4.6% on the month. Sentiment: Bearish. Flat Base — ~6-week sideways range of 7% after a 33% advance; buy point at 743.18.
XPH · US Sectors — Bullish
XPH is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is over-extended above the 50-day line. It trades +11.5% versus its 50-day moving average (+4.5x ATR extension), with returns of +1.9% on the day, +0.2% on the week and +14.0% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.
IBB · US Sectors — Bullish
IBB is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is over-extended above the 50-day line. It trades +7.1% versus its 50-day moving average (+3.4x ATR extension), with returns of +0.1% on the day, -1.2% on the week and +10.7% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. Double Bottom — W-shape with two lows within 3%; buy point at middle peak 176.64.
XOP · US Sectors — Bullish
XOP is classified as Stage 2 (advancing uptrend) and is within a normal volatility band. It trades +4.2% versus its 50-day moving average (+1.6x ATR extension), with returns of +2.2% on the day, +7.3% on the week and +8.8% on the month. It passes the full Minervini trend template. Sentiment: Bullish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.
NLR · Commodities & Resources — Bearish
NLR is classified as Stage 4 (declining downtrend) and is over-sold below the 50-day line. It trades -16.3% versus its 50-day moving average (-4.7x ATR extension), with returns of -0.4% on the day, -9.0% on the week and -16.4% on the month. Sentiment: Bearish. No classic base or flag pattern is currently detected.
Sector money flow (1-month average)
- US Sectors: +1.9% average one-month return
- Size & Style: +0.3% average one-month return
- International & Regional: -0.3% average one-month return
- Bonds & Defensives: -1.0% average one-month return
- Broad Market Indexes: -1.1% average one-month return
- Themes & Growth: -8.6% average one-month return
- Commodities & Resources: -14.7% average one-month return
Stage, pattern and sentiment labels are generated by rule-based approximations (Weinstein stage analysis, Minervini trend template and heuristic pattern detection), not by precise technical analysis. For reference and education only — not investment advice.
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